TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs -40bps to finish the day after dipping late in the afternoon on news VP JD Vance had cancelled his Pakistan trip. But shortly after the close Trump out extending the ceasefire:

Oil finished the day +3%. Some good discussion from the macro crew in TMTB Slack post-close.

Earnings start in earnest tomorrow along with GOOGL’s Cloud Next. Should be a fun next couple of weeks as we drink through the earnings firehose — should be a good time in TMTB Slack as well. We’ll be here covering it all.

Let’s get to the good stuff…

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INTERNET

• AMZN +60bps after announcement with Anthropic in another sign Anthropic is scrambling to secure as much compute as possible, which is a good thing for AWS. Bogeys on the AWS now 31% for Q1 and investors hoping to see an accel in Q2 to close to mid 30s although we won’t get explicit guidance on the call and will be up to Jassy speak.

  • In terms of the deal, Anthropic will secure access to as much as 5GW of current and next-generation Amazon Trainium capacity to train and run its advanced AI models. AMZN is investing another $5B in Anthropic now, with the potential to invest up to an additional $20B over time. +1 GW of Trn 2/3 in 2026 (start 1H26), Significant Trainium2 capacity is coming online in Q2 and scaled Trainium3 capacity is expected to come online later this year.>$100 bn commitment “spans Graviton and Trainium2 through Trainium4 chips”

• META -30bps: META now turning its employees into training data: Here’s Reuters: Meta to start capturing employee mouse movements, keystrokes for AI training data

Meta (META.O), opens new tab is installing new tracking software on U.S.-based employees’ computers to capture mouse movements, clicks and ​keystrokes for use in training its artificial intelligence models, part of a broad initiative to build AI agents that can perform work tasks autonomously, the company told staffers in ‌internal memos seen by Reuters.

The tool, called Model Capability Initiative (MCI), will run on work-related apps and websites and will also take occasional snapshots of the content on employees’ screens, according to one of the memos, posted by a staff AI research scientist on Tuesday in a channel for the company’s model-building Meta SuperIntelligence Labs team.

• RDDT -6% despite the DA Davidson intiaition at Buy. DB called out slowing DAU/egnagement trends in U.S. Some good discussion in TMTB Slack today here