TMTB EOD Wrap

QQQs finished +60bps in a bit of an up and down session as all eyes were on NVDA, who came through post-close with a huge guide number and reiterated the $0.5T through CY26. AI semis were bid all day on the back of Gemini 3 and they’ll be bid again tomorrow. NVDA +5% and QQQs up another 1% post-close with most of the AI complex up 3%+.

The odds of a Fed cut dropped to 33% as consensus has shifted to no Fed cut, but dovish forward commentary, thanks to a set of hawkish minutes that “underscored that the Fed is quite divided when it comes to the near-term policy path (although the overall bias remains dovish – if they don’t cut on 12/10, it’s likely they do so on 1/28, and vice versa)” (h/t VK). BTC hovered around $90k.

Should be a fun one tomorrow, but for now - let’s get to the recap….

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AI / SEMIS

AI complex caught a bid today given the main read-through from Gemini 3 was the scaling laws are still very much intact and G3 is so good because of GOOGL’s compute advantage. LITE +8.8%, CLS +4%; and AVGO +4% the main TPU exposed names getting a bid today. The main underperformers to call out:

• MU -1% where they disappointed by not doing a positive pre although the pres went well saying HBM3 and HBM 4 are sold out through calendar 2026 and DRAM supply tightness is expected to continue beyond CY26. They said there is upward pressure on its current $18B run rate capex guide for FY26; expect increase with Q1’26 results. Highlighted its focus on eSSDs; for the first time leading the industry transition to PCIe Gen eSSDs. MU notes that it has not seen indications of customers de-spec’ing; AI driving increased importance on DRAM content and high-performance aspects of NAND.