TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs +1.4% to new all-time closing highs. What a turn of events since the beginning of the month with QQQs up +15% in a straight line. Strength has been broadening over the last several days. Tech is playing whackbuy-a-laggard right now with Q1 laggards like software, NVDA, TSLA, MSFT, HOOD and even AAPL catching a bid over the last couple of days. Even hated names like PINS, SNAP, UBER, TTD, WIX and DUOL (names we forgot existed) are finally playing catching up as shorts get covered (non profitable tech and high short interest two of the strongest factors today). We saw this “buy-a-laggard” dynamic over the first couple of weeks in AI semis and now it has spread to the rest of the market.

We’re not reading too much into the narratives we heard out there today trying to explain software vs. semi outperformance: “omg, what did Jensen say on Dwarkesh?” “ASML sell the news - what does this mean for TSM” “SNDK down 6% - is NAND over because the Chinese?” “we’ve hit peak Anthropic and revenues must slow from here” “Openrouter data is down.”