Good evening - QQQs -45bps today but +70bps in the post given a very good NVDA print. Yields were slightly higher. Fed expectations shifted slightly in a hawkish direction, with the market pricing in 45bp worth of incremental rate cuts this year.
A very short one today given I’m on earnings calls…
INTERNET
ETSY +2% strength continues - wrote about this one a bit yesterday
RDDT +70bps; New Street had a note out today after meeting with RDDT’s mgmt team last week. New Street said while the rollout of AI Overviews is expected to weigh on logged-out DAUs, management is focused on diversifying traffic sources and leaning into Reddit’s strength as a platform for trusted, human-centered content. The firm notes growing traction in Reddit’s ad business, particularly in mid-funnel performance, and sees upside to ad ARPU even as user traffic moderates. Importantly, New Street mentioned Reddit is building out end-to-end automation tools for advertisers and progressing toward Dynamic Product Ads, which just exited beta. New Street cut logged-out DAU estimates but raised ARPU, with no change to overall revenue or EBITDA forecasts.
CVNA +2.4%: Mixed 3p data here today - Yipit said units stayed in high 30s in the latest week while M-sci said CVNA posted a retail volume increase of 43% in latest week
SEMIS
CDNS -11% / -10%. as admin orderss US chip software suppliers to stop selling to China. Here’s Financial Times:
The Trump administration has told US companies that offer software used to design semiconductors to stop selling their services to Chinese groups, in the latest attempt to make it harder for China to develop advanced chips. Several people familiar with the move said the US Department of Commerce had told so-called electronic design automation groups — which include Cadence, Synopsys and Siemens EDA — to stop supplying their technology to China. The Bureau of Industry and Security, the arm of the US commerce department that oversees export controls, issued the directive to the companies via letters, according to the people. It was unclear if every US EDA company had received a letter. The move marks a significant new effort by the administration to stymie China’s ability to develop leading-edge artificial intelligence chips, as it seeks a technological advantage over its geopolitical rival. In April, Washington restricted the export of Nvidia’s China-specific AI chips.
Wonderful heads up by TMTfocused in the chat, posting the below in the morning with CDNS/SNPS only down 1.5% and about 4 hours before FT caught the headline. Kudos — this is TMTB Chat at its best…
AVGO +1.6% as Mizuho and Melius raised #s and Redburn initiated at Buy
MBLY +3.5% on Imaging radar deal
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to TMT Breakout to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.