TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs -8bps underperforming IWM +10bps again. Treasuries saw some selling pressure today with yields up 3-6bps across the curve as Fed expects continue to shift in a hawkish direction with odds of the next cut still June, but July odds keep rising higher. Warsh’s odds jumped to 60% today vs only 17% for Hassett. Trump said this about the latter today:

“I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today. I actually want to keep you where you are if you want to know the truth,” Trump said. “I’m saying, wait a minute, if I move him, these Fed guys, certainly the one we have now, they don’t talk much. I would lose you. It’s a serious concern to me.”

Tech stocks saw more of the same of what we’ve been seeing to start the new year: AI-related and semicap names leading, while software and internet lagged meaningfully. Semis and semi equipment outperformed (MU, SMCI, CRWV, BE, NBIS, ALAB), driven by strength in memory, power, and …