TMTB EOD Wrap

QQQs -1.2% as market continues to digest lower odds of a Fed cut on 12/10 and shifting paradigm in the AI trade. Odds of a rate cut now are 50/50. Relatively quiet tape today as underlying price action was better in the back half of the afternoon. Gemini 3 was the main news out today as NVDA hits the tape tomorrow.

Let’s dive straight in…

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INTERNET

• GOOGL -25bps as Gemini 3 was announced and reviews are generally very positive (Loop also upgraded the stock). Benchmarks from this morning ended up accurate. Pricing is more expensive vs. 2.5: input tokens are 60% more expensive, and 20% more expensive (h/t FundaAI):

This pricing is an under-rated and important point for a couple reasons. First the obvious: big flex by GOOGL as it signals they know they have the best model. Second, Google—historically the aggressive pricer trying to undercut OpenAI—is now positioning itself above OpenAI’s flagship (GPT-5.1 at ~$1.25 input) and nearly matching Anthropic’s premium tier signals a massive shift in foundational model economics. For the last 18 months, the prevailing narrative was that LLM intelligence would become undifferentiated and cheaper — in fact, Satya reiitearted this argument on the Dwarkesh pod last week. Google’s move contradicts this. It seems like we are not seeing a split into two distinct markets:

• Commodity Intelligence: Models like Gemini Flash and GPT-4o mini continue the race to the bottom (prices approaching zero).

• Premium Intelligence: Frontier models like Gemini 3 and Claude 3.5/4.5 Sonnet are charging for reasoning and reliability.

One thing we mentioned in our weekend piece was the AI trade shifting to more a focus on monetization, and this is a good sign for the industry.

Other side of that argument:

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Some benchmarks/Reviews: