TMTB EOD Wrap

QQQs +20bps / SPY -27bps on a fairly slow day where volumes ran 20% below 20D average. Yields fell 2-4bps across the curve. Hassett’s odds on Polymarket rebounded back to 50% as of Tues afternoon (while Warsh fell to ~30% and Waller is just 15% as Trump will interview the latter tonight). Tech traded mixed and choppy today staging a late day rally, with payments, software, and internet modestly higher, while semis, hardware, and network equipment lagged. AI Power & Infrastructure held up (+1%), but analog/network were notable drags, keeping the SOX under pressure. Quantum caught a bid on some positive initiations by Jefferies. BTC +2% to $88k

If there’s going to be a Dec rally, usually starts around now: