TMTB EOD Wrap
Good afternooon evening. QQQs +40bps with SOX +2% leading us higher. Market now placing 100% odds on a 25bps rate hike before the end of the year. Waller: "I can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon, and that is especially true if measures of inflation expectations, some of which have risen lately, show signs of becoming unanchored."
BTC -2%. Yields mixed with 2year rising 4bps while long end of the curve dipped slightly. Oil +1%.
We’ll be away from our screens for the long weekend, so wanted to get this out as lots of interesting things to call out today.
Let’s get straight to it…
AI/SEMIS
After going through AI Semi charts heading into the weekend, there are some interesting divergences to note.
First, SOX hitting new highs but on significant negative RSI divergence:
There’s a long list of lot of names hitting new highs: analogs like TXN, ON, NXPI; CPU darlings like AMD ARM also; QCOM NOK DELL HPE BE ALAB & MRVL with new closing highs today as well. CSCO with nice follow through to new highs following their print. A handful of these names up double digits today.
However, the list of names not hitting new highs along with the broader index is also long, and interestingly contain many AI semi beta names which led us higher through the fall and off the bottom in early April: