Good afternoon. QQQs flat in a slow, low-liquidity end-of-month Monday. Fed expectations held steady as yields rose 3-4bps. Oil +2.5%
Let’s get right to the good stuff…
AI/SEMIS
SNDK choppy trading: +4% → -5% → finishing +6% after a 9% rally in the last 30 minutes. A perfectly normal day when the order book is three interns and a pair algos:
NAND Spot continues to hit new highs:
SKHY +2% / MU +3%: UBS Asia was out raising DRAM estimates, saying they see DRAM supply-demand gap widening further in 2027, with blended ASPs +44% y/y and the sufficiency ratio falling to -6% even assuming inventory digestion, versus -12% without it. UBS says unconstrained DRAM bit demand could exceed +100% while supply grows only ~40%, with server DDR particularly strong and HBM demand still seen +91% y/y despite de-spec concerns.
GEV -1.5% on news Elon was going to begin producing turbines
MRVL -2% as NVDA’s $3.5B convert investment in MediaTek and expanded NVLink Fusion partnership likely added to custom-chip competition concerns.
The bearish read-through: a better-funded MediaTek with more NVDA-provided connectivity and memory technology could compete more aggressively for hyperscaler ASIC wins, taking some shine off MRVL’s own NVDA partnership.
Otherwise fairly slow day here…
INTERNET
OpenAI announced its new ad model had reached $1B in ARR after 200 days of launch. Hypers weak all day — didn’t hear any great reason other than the OpenAI news: AMZN -2.5%; GOOGL -2%; META -1%
AMZN -2.5% saw from WSJ: FTC Files Lawsuit Alleging Amazon Deceived Advertisers. WSJ reporting the FTC and more than 20 states sued AMZN, alleging it secretly manipulated ad auctions to raise minimum prices and overcharged advertisers by more than $20B over seven years. Amazon denies wrongdoing, saying its auction practices are standard, transparent, and improved ad relevance/value.