TMTB EOD Wrap

Happy Taco Tuesday! QQQs 1.4% climbing after Trump declared no tariffs and that a “framework of a future deal” with NATO over the island had been reached. Long end of the curve declined 4-5bps as Fed expects continue to shift slightly to July. BTC sitting at $90k.

In Tech, both semis and hardware outperformed today, with memory and equipment leading the tape while software continued to lag (what’s new?). Factor-wise, nothing too exciting with weaker balance sheets and China-exposed names surprisingly outperforming, while profitable secular growth and GARP software trailed.

Let’s get to it…

---

INTERNET

• NFLX -2% a respectable showing after guiding down operating margins. Like I said this morning, no excitement surrounding the stock either way. Saw some big put sales go through in the mid 70s, which seems to be where investors are thinking about laying a line in the sand. Mid 70s = 20x $3.75 in ‘27

• SHOP -4%: Lots of questions on this as it’s lost a bit of its “AI winner” shine over the last several weeks (this this is more it as 3p data has held up fine — tracking to 40% vs street in low 30s). A few reasons: ACC (“After Claude Code”) making it easier to build websites and create apps that handle inventory and orders, which is ~25% of SHOP’s revenues. The front-end UI (10-15%) obviously more at risk. Second, have heard ivnestors call out Agentic Commerce Protocol (“ACP”) being cited as a risk as it bypasses SHOP Pay button. The AI agent holds the cc info in its own secure vault (Stripe Link or OAI wallet) not inside SHOP Pay. SHOP does have their own Agentic Protocol (UCP) which they developed with Google, with the main difference between UCP allows the AI agent to “embed” the actual Shopify Checkout inside the chat window. But the risk being the OAI and other LLMs outside Gemini won’t work use UCP.

• RDDT -7%: Lots of questions here and not a lot of answers. The only thing I’ve heard people point to is OAI ads siphoning away some $s.

• GOOGL +2% as AAPL said revamped Siri coming in 2H’26 and mulling running chatbot directly on GOOGL Cloud and TPU chips