TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs -60bps with a nice rally to close the day after WSJ reported that AMZN in talks to invest up to $50B in OpenAI. Some are hating on this move by AMZN, but we like it as it likely comes with some Trn3 buys and some sort of Agentic commerce framework for AMZN that should help alleviate concerns on that front.

The big news of the day was obviously massive sell-off in SaaS/sw with Jefferies saying they were seeing names 10 to 1 better for sale from LOs and had never seen a skew such extreme. All this catalyzed by a trifecta of weaker reports from 3 of the previous large cap darlings: MSFT, NOW, and SAP. Definitely felt like the LO capitulation that seemed like destiny in the ACCel era..

Outside Tech, funky moves in precious metals as Gold and Silver continue to behave with extreme vol and BTC -5% on the day.

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Post-close earnings hits:

SNDK +12% with a huge March guide of $12-14 vs bogeys of $8.50-$9 and street at $5. Numbers imply ASPs +35% / 57% in Dec/March quarters. Buyside numbers likely go to $80-100 now on this ($15 run rate already $60). Operating leverage kicking in sooner than expected given pricing leverage. Dec GM 51% and March GM up to 65-67% vs street at 49%.