TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs +75bps today as software +3% and semis +1.4% led the way higher on 2nd straight day of risk-on. BTC hovering around $70k. Yields down flat to down.

OpenAI related names rallied on 1) the back of a positive CNBC article which said Altman said Chatgpt back to 10% monthly growth and called out +60% Codex w/w growth and 2) DA Davidson upgraded “OpenAI and its Orbit” leading up to model releases and fund raising news: Softbank was up 6% overnight, ORCL +9% helped by a DA Davidson upgrade as well; AMD +3.6%, MSFT +3%. We think sentiment around OAI generally on the up despite last week’s moves ahead of the 2 main catalysts — funding and model releases. This chart was also being passed around showing Codex catching up to Clade Code usage.

Also saw some buying in names outside of sw that had been beaten down over the last 1.5 weeks on AI fears, where they were likely misplaced: SHOP +6%; TTWO +5%; U +10% for example.

Factor wise, OpenAI names strong as mentioned while software, AI infra, and network/optical caught a bid. Memory lagged. Consumer/Travel names underperformed. Tape favored Bitcoin-related, AI, non-profitable tech, high short interest, and momentum pairs, while defensives, balance-sheet quality, and low-beta growth lagged. Despite strength today, still plenty of questions from investors I talked to today on how sustainable and legs this bounce has.

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Post-close, CRDO +16% on a positive pre expecting $404-$408M vs prior guide of $335-$345M. Will do $08M in revs in Q3. Into Fy26/Fy27, expecting seq rev growth in MSD which implies >200% growth vs street ~+175%.

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Let’s get to it…

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INTERNET

• RBLX +10% as Roth upgraded to Buy after last week’s better than expected bookings guidance. Roth said 2026 bookings guidance and a projected >20% multi-year bookings CAGR. Roth says it is increasingly confident in Roblox’s “strong, sustainable virtuous cycle,” where ongoing improvements in creator and development tools are driving higher-quality games, better user experiences, and rising engagement. MS was also out saying world models are likely to augment and improve existing game engines than replace them. TTWO +5% as well on that MS note. Survive Lava a new game also making its way into the top 5 although w/w CCU still down