TMTB EOD Wrap

Oops — must have forgot to click send on this a few hours…Apologies for the delay…

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TMTB will be on vacation from 6/30 - 7/11. Friday will be our last day before we leave.

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QQQs +26bps to more new highs — AI trade continues to chug along nicely with NVDA +4% finally breaking out to new ATHs helped by continue positive Asia datapoints, soverign excitement, and a Loop note taking PT up to $250 — its about time! AMD +3.5% /CLS +3.6% the other winners. It’s like we’re back in ‘23/24 AI vibe land. Yesterday we said given this, “we wouldn’t even be surprised if SMCI got a bid at some point” and today it started with stock +8%. MU +3% with a nice clean beat post close should keep the party alive and well. It’s an AI market — TSM +1.2%, MRVL +1%; ARM +60bps, etc. — , which today helped suck the bid from everything else.

Slow summer news day, but let’s get to it…

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INTERNET

• DUOL -6% continues to underperform as 3p has pointed to paid subs miss and small magnitude beat vs. street on bookings. DA Davidson was out today with their checks saying as much as he lowered PT to $500 from $600 saying Q2 DAU growth beat of 170bps a contraction vs Q1 growth beat of 350bps, although noted he thinks Q2 backlash on social media temporary. Stock has filled its gap from earnings in early May, so it’s a good spot to trim some given stock has underperformed QQQs by 30% over the last month, but we continue think any rallies will likely be met with selling.

• RDDT +60bps faded throughout the day after Cleveland initiated at buy and RBC called out positive checks