MS TMT Conf: Nvidia's Jensen (NVDA); Microsoft's (MSFT) Satya; Applovin's (APP) CEO Key quotes

All 3 sounding pretty good at MS today…

NVDA: CEO Jensen Huang

Compute = Revenue = GDP (The Core Thesis)

“We now know for certain that companies’ revenues are directly correlated to compute. We know that for a fact — because if Anthropic had 3x more compute, their revenues will be 3x higher. We know that. Anthropic is compute limited, factory limited. It’s no different than Mercedes being factory limited. If they had more compute in their factories, they will have higher revenues. Compute equals revenues for companies. In the future, every single company will need compute for revenues, because compute translates to intelligence, which translates to your digital workforce, which translates to your revenues. I am certain compute equals revenues. I’m certain also that compute equals GDP. Therefore, every country will have it, because not one country in the future will say, ‘We’re gonna opt out on intelligence.’”

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The Agentic Inflection — Tokens Exploding 1 Million x

“Literally in the last 2 years, we went through 3 inflection points in AI. The first was generative — the ability to translate and convert information from one form to another. The second was o1 and reasoning: self-reflection, the ability to self-correct, grounded on context and truth. That generated maybe 1,000 times more compute than the first generation. The third inflection — agents. These are now consuming 1 million times more tokens. They’re running continuously in the background, writing, developing tools, developing software. The last prompt was queries — ‘what is, when is, who is.’ This prompt is actions — ‘create, do, build, write.’ The amount of compute every company needs is skyrocketing.”

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OpenClaw — Biggest Software Release Ever

“OpenClaw is probably the single most important release of software, probably ever. Linux took some 30 years to reach its level of adoption. OpenClaw in 3 weeks has now surpassed Linux. It is now the single most downloaded open source software in history, and it took 3 weeks. If you look at the line, even in semi-log, this thing is straight up — it’s vertical. It looks like the Y-axis. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

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NVIDIA’s Tokens Per Watt = Earnings Moat

“Tokens per watt is the single most important thing for the top line of companies. NVIDIA’s tokens per watt is an order of magnitude ahead of the competition alternative. Your factory has 1 gigawatt — if your tokens per watt is 10 times the alternative, your revenues are 10 times the alternative. For the very first time in history, the computer architecture chosen in a company’s factory must go through CEO review. That company only has a gigawatt or 2.3 gigawatts for next year — if they put the wrong system inside, it will affect their revenues the next year. I promise you that. SemiAnalysis declared NVIDIA inference king. Our tokens per dollar is also the best, which means we’re the cheapest tokens you can produce today. Not even close. An order of magnitude better.”

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Three Net-New Demand Vectors Just Added

“We expanded OpenAI’s capacity from Azure to OCI to now AWS — we’re ramping AWS like mad. In the case of Anthropic, we’re expanding their capacity as aggressively as we can at AWS as well as Azure. The amount of capacity we’re gonna bring online for them — their quality of revenues are so good, we just need a lot more capacity for them. Then a brand-new AI lab flashed into the world — MSL — and they need a few million GPUs. MSL is a net new on top of Meta. These three things happened: OpenAI at AWS, Anthropic totally at both AWS and Azure, and MSL. Our demand profile went from being incredibly high to higher than that.”

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Full Stack Ownership = Impossible to Replicate