Doug O'Laughlin (Semianalysis) & TMTB Slack AMA Summary

Thanks to Doug, Semianalysis President, for joining us on Friday. Some great insights and discussion all around. Here are some of the most interesting takes:

NVIDIA & GPU Market

Stock & Multiple Dynamics:

“NVDA is Apple is my biggest concern.... as in it is the #1 mcap, and margins are slightly down etc. I think it’s hard for multiple expansion, and it will grind on the multiple as it continues to grow VERY meaningfully. Share loss does cap multiple but EPS will work from here. AAPL got out of it by LBO’ing the company, I don’t think Jensen will do the same.”

“Realistically NVDA is now the new AAPL, and I don’t know what makes the multiple go up like it used to.”

Market Share:

“Honest guys I don’t know if that matters. Most supply in the world is Nvidia’s, and it was bound to go from 95% share to not that. I still believe they will be 60-70% share.”

CUDA Moat: