Broadcom (AVGO): Buyside Bogeys & Thoughts into Print

Implied move: 7% vs historical 5.5%

1-2 (or 3) liner: AVGO stock down 10% YTD (and dn 11% since last print despite estimates going up 20%+) as fears around 1) Mediatek share loss concerns at GOOGL (bulls will argue MTK SerDes not competitive with AVGO) 2) software exposure/headwinds and 3) margin sustainability given Anthropic revs tied to racks (near-term) and fears around COT implementations (long-term). Hock has sounded good intra around demand and addressing some of these issues. Keys for the call/print are the Q2 guide which bulls think comes above, Hock’s commentary around EBITDA margins (does he confirm mid 60s for the year) or give visibility around trough margins, and any commentary around backlog visibility beyond $100B. Question I hear from fast money guys emblematic of sentiment: if NVDA can’t go up after a big guide w GTC as a catalyst, can AVGO work?

Here are bogeys:

For F27 EPS, bulls around $18-20+ vs. street at $15

AI Semi revs: