***DISCLAIMER***
I AM NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
This newsletter is published for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is individualized investment advice, a recommendation tailored to any person's circumstances, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This newsletter is not an investment advisory service, and no advisory or fiduciary relationship is created between me and any reader.
All views expressed are my good-faith opinions as of the date of publication, based solely on publicly available information believed reliable but not independently verified. I do not seek, accept, or use material non-public information. My published views may change at any time without notice.
I actively trade many of the securities mentioned in this newsletter, often on a short-term basis, and my personal trading is not constrained by my published views. Assume that I (or accounts I control) may hold long or short positions — including options or other derivatives — in any security discussed; that I may buy or sell at any time, including immediately before or after publication, without notice; that I may transact in a manner inconsistent with the views expressed; and that I may exit any position at any time, including shortly after publication, at prices unrelated to any price target or valuation mentioned. Any position referenced is accurate only as of the time of writing. I do not announce or report when positions are opened, changed, or closed, and I have no obligation to do so.
Price targets, fair-value estimates, upside/downside scenarios, and similar figures are illustrative opinions as of the publication date — not predictions, guarantees, or commitments. They are not representations that I hold, or will maintain, any position until any such level is reached, and I may close positions at prices well short of (or beyond) any figure mentioned. References to time frames, events, or catalysts (for example, “into earnings”) describe the analytical context of an idea, not my personal holding period, which may be materially shorter than any thesis horizon discussed.
Do not rely on this newsletter to make investment decisions. Conduct your own research and consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before trading any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the risk of total loss.
All content is provided “as is.” I make no representation about its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. The newsletter may contain errors or omissions, and I have no obligation to update, correct, or supplement anything published here.
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Why subscribe?
TMT Breakout aims to be your own TMT specialist and pass on the most important and relevant technology, media, and telecom stock moving research, trade ideas, datapts, and news along with our own commentary every day before market open and a daily recap after the close. We’ll also write up equity and market ideas, positioning/sentiment updates on the Tech sector, earnings previews and recaps. One of our readers said it best:
In addition to our work as a daily “TMT specialist on steroids,” we have also made several bold calls when our conviction has been high:
We made a highly controversial call and got cautious on AMZN near its 52wk highs on Sept 17th before anyone on the sell side had called out potential risks to Q4. Stock fell 16% before earnings. See here.
On Thursday morning, we flipped and said that AMZN sentiment had taken a complete 180 since our cautious call and we went long into the print. Stock rallied 7% on Friday. See here.
We wrote up MSFT as our favorite large cap earnings idea on Oct 1st and called out a likely Azure acceleration. See here
We got cautious the QQQs on Sept 17th before it dropped 6%, calling out weakening fundamentals in large cap tech before the narrative had taken hold. See here.
We called out a potential near-term bottom in the QQQs on Sept 27th and called for a “choppy October”. See here
We re-iterated our cautious call on the QQQs Oct 15th, catching another 7% move down. See here
At the beginning of last week, we called out a “high bar for swinging at longs” into earnings. Price action has confirmed our view. See here
We don’t always get everything right; however, whether we hit or miss, we always aim to provide you with a unique and differentiated perspective on individual tech stocks and the market. We aren’t afraid to stick our neck out and make bold calls.
Why did we start TMT Breakout?
I have spent over 20 years investing in technology stocks – close to 15 of those years on the buy-side, including stints as a Tech PM running 9 figures at a multi-manager hedge fund and as a Tech Media Telecom sector head at a $Bn+ HF. Over the years, I have witnessed the nature of the investing game change — with the proliferation of alternative data intra-q checks, pod-shop hedge funds operating on shorter time frames, heightened volatility, quarterly reports getting pre-traded on 3p data, and the ever-increasing importance of understanding positioning & sentiment, it is unmistakably evident that there has been a permanent transformation in market structure. Investors are feeling frustrated and discouraged.
In Tech, time frames have compressed even more than other industries — whether you are an institutional or retail investor, having the right piece of news, knowing what is driving a stock price move on a given day, understanding the most prevalent narratives driving a stock, and being aware of sentiment/positioning has become of utmost important to perform well (or at the very least not get run over). Stocks frequently experience large outsized moves a lot quicker than in the past: it used to be an abnormality to see a $10Bn+ market cap company move 5%+ in a single day – now it’s just another day at the office.
At TMT Breakout, not only do we aim to pass along snippets of all relevant stock-moving research and datapts in tech, but also provide relevant trading commentary around sentiment and positioning, stock narratives and ideas (both long and short), and which pieces of information we expect to move stocks so readers can understand stock action and better capture the alpha from how these pieces of research, data, news and earnings move stocks, ultimately allowing your trading and investing better odds of succeeding.
How Happy are Subscribers?
See for yourself! A smattering of representative comments:
