TMTB WEEKLY: BUSY WEEK OF EARNINGS

Happy Sunday. We’ll touch on the top-down set up first then move onto Earning Let’s dive straight in…

MACRO

The macro set up remains supportive in our view: Earnings + growth strong, inflation is benign and subdued (for now), investors like the clarity on tariffs and taxes vs. uncertainty over last several months (an EU/US trade deal of 15% tariffs was announced over the weekend), potential of easier monetary easing (Powell noise is bringing M2 monetary expansion forward), and an AI super-cycle that shows no signs of abating. Yields and Oil remain subdued while there are signs the housing market is getting better. More TACO over the weekend with China tariffs delayed another 90 days.

Bears will point to elevated valuation, extended positioning, signs of froth (just take a look at meme mania this past week), tariffs’ impact on inflation not flowing through yet, complicating the Fed’s job in the back half of the year as the tug of war between falling shelter prices and rising goods/core se…