TMTB Weekly
Happy Sunday - hope everyone is enjoying their long weekend. Thursday brought the last trading day of the quarter, and what a quarter it was. Plenty of big moves across TMT in both directions this quarter - just take a look at the Top 20 movers in both directions below:
We had years worth of moves jam-packed into this quarter (and sometimes just a few days!).
This continues to be one of the most fun TMT trading environments I have experienced in my career. It’s not only because the trading environment has felt particularly easy on the long side over the last 5 months (although yes, that’s part of it).
But in larger part it’s because we are the early stages of what is likely the most significant secular and disruptive trend any of us have experienced in our lifetimes. And it’s one that is moving extremely fast, which makes it especially fun to be an investor. The AI news flow hasn’t slowed down and it seems like it’s every week we get wow’d with some new piece of news or demonstration of AI capabilities. This past weekend didn’t disappoint with the news a massive new MSFT/Open AI datacenter buildout named Stargate and TSLA’s new FSD getting rave reviews.
Even for us tech investors, the pace of news flow is unprecedented. While it requires us to move our feet quicker than we’re used to, it also presents plenty of opportunities for alpha, not only on earnings but also on shifts in sentiment.
Just this q, here at TMTB we were able to catch two 10%+ rallies on GOOGL intra-q just on shifts in perception (one in Jan and one this last month). One of the biggest trades we missed this q was the 100x on weekly puts on ADBE on the Friday Open-AI’s text-to-video Sora product was announced. And let us not forget the large earnings moves in NVDA (and post-earnings leading up to GTC ), MU, SMCI, ARM, DELL or AI “faker to maker” trades like PLTR, and AI “maker to faker” trades like SNOW. Plenty of opportunities to go around. We don’t think this q was an anomaly: we think price and sentiment shifts brought about from AI product releases +ramps/announcements/shifts in the landscape etc. will continue to happen faster and more frequently as time goes on. We’ll do our best here at TMTB to help you navigate through these and hopefully make some $ off the moves.