Happy Sunday. June Q earnings largely wrapped up this week as markets ended the week in a much better place than they started (futs down 4% on Monday morning). On the macro front, slow week other than CPI on Wed morning and retail sales on Thurs.
We’ll get into some updated market / misc thoughts, then hop into key debates/positioning/sentiment in internet/sw/semis. I’ll be traveling next weekend so there’ll be no weekly - we’ll try to cram as much as we can into this one…
Bigger picture - what changed this week?
We think Monday morning was the likely bottom for the year, which marked a 15%+ drawdown in the QQQs and 10% drawdown in the SPYs. We’ve been showing the chart below which shows that the market typically draws down 10-15% 2 months heading into a rate cycle. Last week we said we thought the majority of the pullback was probably largely done, and this week we’re leaving with more confidence that we’re unlikely to see new lows (and if we do, unlikely to be significantly below …
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to TMT Breakout to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.