TMTB: TTWO WDAY Recaps
TTWO +5%: F4Q bookings/EPS beat and reaffirmed GTA VI for 11/19/26, while FY27 guide came in well below Street and bogeys, but viewed as conservative. Focus shifts to Marketing beginning in late June.
Overall, bulls happy to have the weaker print out of the way so focus can shift to marketing/hype cycle ahead of GTA VI.
The #s:
F4Q26 net bookings were $1.580B, ~flat y/y, (last q +28% y/y) vs Street $1.555B, -2% y/y; GAAP revenue was $1.680B, +6% y/y vs Street $1.615B.
Non-GAAP EPS was $0.80 vs Street ~$0.56 to $0.58, with adjusted EBITDA $240M vs Street $189M.FY27 net bookings guide of $8.0B to $8.2B, +~21% y/y at the midpoint, was below Street ~$9.1B to $9.3B and bogeys of $8.5B, while EPS guide of $5.75 to $6.00 was below Street ~$7.8 to $7.9.
Guide looks conservative. If you assume ~$1.1B of rockstar bookings in FY’26, 36% of the FY27 bookings to be from rockstar, incremental is $1.85B which — assuming an ASP of $60 — gets you low 30M of GTA with no GTA incremental to current base.