TMTB: The Non-Bubble that disappointed both Bulls and Bears -- how Sam's Splurge changed everything

The worst kept secret among Tech market participants — just something AI bulls don’t admit out loud: they want a price-action bubble every bit as much as the bears do.

Both want to see that steep, “blow-off” ascent that characterizes parabolic tops. Why? The AI bulls are all fully loaded for a vertical melt-up and AI bears want the aftermath so they can yell “I told you so.”

It’s obvious to AI bulls (us included) that we’re not in an AI bubble. The non-argument is simple: valuations are reasonable (NVDA near 20x), the equity risk premium is almost 300bps above where it troughed in the tech bubble, operating margins are rich, and we’re still very early in the demand/build out of the AI supercycle.

But bulls will typically follow this argument up by saying “‘it’s more like ‘97/’98.”

Implicit in that statement is that they’re hoping the inevitable outcome is a ‘97-’99 style ramp, with all hoping it would occur as soon as possible. Why? The simplest answer is usually the right one: everyon…