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TMTB: NVDA Recap
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TMTB: NVDA Recap

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TMT Breakout
Nov 21, 2024
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TMTB: NVDA Recap
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Getting this out early as I finish up the morning wrap…

NVDA: Solid quarter. Bullish call. Story intact as BW begins to ramp into next year

Key points from the call:

  1. Scaling isn’t dead

  2. BW on track to exceed prior guide of "several billions dollars” while it’s possible Hopper grows into Jan Q

  3. Networking was weak -15% q/q but will grow in Jan Q

  4. Gross margins will decline to 71-72.5% before rebounding to mid 70s mid year

NVDA beat this q’s guide by $2.5B and guided the next q up by $2.5B, which is above their typical cadence of $2B/$2B (last quarter was $2B / $2.5B) so assuming another $2.5B beat (which talking to some buysiders think is conservative), we get to ~$40B+ which is around where buyside is shaking out for Jan Q and where they were before going into the print.

Main nitpick is why networking down…no clear answer but co said it would return to growth next q

Sell-side raising targets and Citi adds as a positive catalyst watch heading into CES. Next catalysts are TSM Nov data, UBS conf in beginning of Dec, Jensen keynote/analyst mtg at CES, then Jan Q, then GTC

What does stock do today?

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