TMTB: NVDA Earnings Recap

Sending this out early for you early-risers, will send the usual Morning Wrap out shortly…

NVDA: Solid results with Total revs/DC revs hitting bogeys / Q3 rev guide a bit light / GM guide the debate…

One-liner: Not much to change narrative/#s here, buyside #s staying at ~$4.75-$5 in FY26

Q2 DC revs $26.3B vs $26B+ bogeys $25B street
Total Revs $30B vs $28.8 street and $30B+ bogeys
Q3 Revs guided to $32.5B vs street at $31.9B and bogeys of $33B

Debate last night and this morning and why stock is down centers around GMs. NVDA reiterated that Oct Q gross margin drifts back to 75% with full year in the mid 70s (assuming that means 75% its shy of street’s 76% and implies Q4 at ~72% vs street’s 75% assuming same $2B beat cadence through year end) - while in line with what they said last call in terms of Blackwell initially being dilutive to GMs, it does imply a downtick of a few 100bps in Q4 (Jan) (note, nvda has also said eventually BW margins will be in ~80% range for BW similar to Hopper).

Oth…