TMTB: NVDA ADSK Recap, Altman is back at OpenAI, EBAY 3p mixed, PINS 3p +ve, CRM weak checks at KEYB, BABA Jack Ma stalling sale, AAPL no more wait times

NVDA results came in line/slightly better vs buyside bogeys with Revs coming in at $18.1B vs. bogey of $17.5B for the q and right at $20B bogey +/- 2%.  Gross margin guide was above at 75% vs street at 72.4% and buyside at 73%.  Largely what was expected (w some GM upside) and I don’t think this quarter is enough to get anyone to change their minds – Jensen sounded v good on the call, talked up enterprise and inference opportunity and said “absolutely” they can grow data center in ’25 and NVDA is an “AI foundry” – but still unlikely to alleviate bear’s fears over sustainability of growth and China fears.   Sell-side raising EPS and PTs across the street.

Bulls will say AI is still in early earnings, NVDA remains best way to play this trend, purchase commitments rose 53% pointing to no demand issues in 24, it’s still cheap and point out incremental drivers (inference, H200, networking a $10B biz and continuing to grow, LT software monetization opportunity). 30x FY26 $23 = $700

Bears – in addition to sustainability/china/competitive fears - will also point to valuation that is optically cheap but unclear how cheap it really is without more color into backlog. They’ll point out comps begin to get significantly tougher in Q2…how long can they continue beating with 20-25% of LT DC revs going away (China)…will say $23 is a peak number so need to haircut it my 20% and give it a trough 18-20x multiple = $375

Some key quotes:

Data Center growth: