TMTB: MSFT ISI LT AI opp; ARM Mizuho +ve; META Temu spend; MU Stifel ug; 3P Roundup (RBLX, GOOGL, NOW, PYPL, PINS); INTC $3.5 contract; AKAM ug; PINS bull case; GOOGL trade secrets/CBO +ve; CIEN Firs

Good morning - QQQs are up 45bps, BTC is up 50bps, China dn 1%, and yields are ticking slightly lower

Sam Altman the most interesting presentation at MS TMT today at 10:15am. We get AVGO/MRVL/MDB after the close. Let’s get to it…

MSFT: ISI dives into MSFT’s LT AI opportunity

ISI thinks that Gen AI could driev ~$83B in incremental revs in CY28, which is an incremental ~25% vs street, and represent a ~$5 incremental EPS uplift, which is also an incremental 25% vs. street. ISI’s bull case is even more aggressive as they think $142B and $12 in incremental revs and EPS. This is all mainly driven by co-pilot offerings, impact of AI on Azure consumption trends and role of Bing. Search in AI.

TMTB: Good LT note from ISI here - MSFT remains one of our fav LT software ideas for this very reason: multiple levers to drive growth coming from AI going forward. MSFT is also holding a “new Era of Work” event on March 21st, which will likely talk up co-pilot.

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ARM/AVGO: Mizuho raises ARM PT to $160/AVGO to $1,550 on Custom Silicon Boost