TMTB Morning Wrap Part 1: The controversial NVDA slide...

Sending this out early while I work through other stuff as I’ve spent most of my morning going over the most controversial slide in the presentation yesterday which is this one, where NVDA says they have shipped 3.6M Blackwell GPUs (2 GPUs per chip) to the top 4 US CSPs so far in 2025.

What does this mean for revs and eps?

I think UBS’s Arcuri framed it the best. He said the slide implies that top 4 customers were 40% of total units last year. After speaking to the company, they said slide was meant to represent shipments “in process” - the rough equivalent of backlog looking out through Q3 (Oct) of this year. If one assumes a similar mix and nets off the 100k shipped to customers in the month of January, that would imply BW units in ~4.2M range.

WE MUST GO DEEPER…