TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. Futures +1.1% with Crude -3% following through on yesterday’s rally as market digests “it only takes 1 to TACO” aka Trump’s threats to walk away completely from Iran in a short amount of time. Trump is addressing the nation tonight at 9pm and with the market open tomorrow, the consensus thinking is he is more likely to talk about victory rather than any escalatory action. Asia largely finished higher with Korea +8% (Samsung +13%; SK Hynix +10%); Japan +5%; and HK +2%) while Europe +2.5%. Yields down 3-4bps across the curve.

Leading AI names back to leading early with LITE +5%; HDDs +3%; CIEN +3%; SNDK +3%; MU +3%…MRVL +3% looks to be one of the first AI semis to make a run at 52wk highs.

Let’s get to it…

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OpenAI: OpenAI Closes Silicon Valley’s Largest-Ever Funding Round

According to WSJ, OpenAI completed a $122 billion funding round, the largest in Silicon Valley history, valuing the company at $852 billion ahead of an expected year-end IPO. Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank committed $110 billion, while OpenAI raised over $3 billion from wealthy investors and will be included in ARK Invest ETFs, marking the first private company in ARK's flagship fund. The company is shifting strategy to build a "superapp" for developers and enterprises, expecting roughly half its revenue from enterprises by year-end.

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DIS: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform/$115 PT — “Not Fooling Around,” Sees Attractive Risk/Reward Into Back-Half Loaded F2H26

Raymond James upgrades Disney from Market Perform, arguing the current macro/Parks headwinds create an attractive entry at ~15x NTM P/E and ~13x P/vFCF — well below 10-year medians of ~20x and ~23x. The firm notes this is a back-half story with 2H tailwinds including two cruise launches, lapping Epic Universe comps, Paris Frozen expansion, and easier content/linear comps, while DTC profitability is expected to be the bigger earnings growth driver than Experiences through FY28 (RJe $3B incremental streaming OI vs. $2B from Experiences). Expects ~$9.7B (~6% of market cap) returned to shareholders in FY26.

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AMD: Wells Fargo Adds to 2Q26 Tactical Ideas List, Sees EPYC Server CPU Upside and MI455X Ramp as Key Catalysts