TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. Futures-60bps having bounced off lows a bit. Asia mostly saw gains on Monday: Hang Seng +2.53%, HSCEI +2.65%, Taiwan TAIEX +0.5%, Korea KOSPI +0.65%. Japan and China were closed.

Big event this week is NVDA on Wednesday. But also have relatively full slate with DOCN, WDAY, CRM, TTD, SNOW, INTU, ADSK, DELL, NTAP, ZS, CRWV, DUOL, ZS and more. We’ll have some bogeys for some of these later today.

Hope everyone enjoyed their weekend. Let’s get to it…

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OpenAI: OpenAI resets spending expectations, tells investors compute target is around $600 billion by 2030 - CNBC (out post close Friday)

CNBC :

OpenAI is telling investors that it’s now targeting roughly $600 billion in total compute spend by 2030, months after CEO Sam Altman touted $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments.

Funda.AI clarifies:

The $1.4 trillion refers to CAPEX Commitment, which includes not only OpenAI’s direct investment but also investments from Azure, AWS, ORCL, and CRWV.
-The $600B refers to Compute Spending/Compute Cost within OPEX. The Information has historically shared excellent reports that you can track - they’re all OPEX metrics. In fact, I understand OpenAI never discusses CAPEX metrics because they’ve had virtually no CAPEX until now.
-The key difference between CAPEX and OPEX is that this year’s CAPEX gets depreciated over the next 5 years, making CAPEX a leading indicator. During CAPEX upcycles, CAPEX will consistently exceed OPEX.
-The $1.4 trillion commitment was first mentioned by Sam in a podcast about the AVGO partnership after AVGO’s earnings, where he referenced the next 8 years. So $1.4 trillion covers investment commitments from 2025 to 2032/2033.
-The $600B represents Compute Spend (Training Compute + Inference Compute) from 2026 to 2030.

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OpenAI: GPT 5.3 coming this week?

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OpenAI/ORCL/Softbank: Inside OpenAI’s Scramble to Get Computing Power After Stargate Stalled

TheInformation:

More than a year later, the Stargate joint venture has not staffed up and is not developing any of OpenAI’s data centers, according to three people involved in the shelved idea. In the weeks following the announcement, Stargate floundered, lacking leadership and coordination, these people said. Stargate’s three members—AI model developer OpenAI, cloud provider Oracle and Japanese conglomerate SoftBank—disagreed over who would do what and how the partnership would be structured.

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GenAI: THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS; A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future - Citrini

Article cited for weakness in some names early like DASH -4%. here’s a list of all stocks mentioned in the “thought exercise” AI economics doomsday scenario:

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Anthropic: Holding a briefing on enterprise agents tomorrow - link

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Anthropic: Hegseth to meet Anthropic CEO as Pentagon threatens banishment - Axios

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GOOGL: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight; PT Raised to $387 on AI Capacity Edge

Wells Fargo upgraded Alphabet to Overweight from Equal Weight and lifted its price target to $387 from $354, arguing the company leads on the three defining traits of AI winners: customer data, distribution, and compute. The analyst notes its capacity work indicates Alphabet is positioned to leverage its data and distribution advantages across both consumer and enterprise AI, with “capacity as king” in the current cycle. Wells highlights Project Google, which is expected to scale compute capacity to 35GW by 2028 from 15GW at the end of 2025, extending Alphabet’s lead versus hyperscaler peers.

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CRWD / NET / ZS / OKTA / PANW / FTNT: Bernstein Says Claude Code Security Selloff Overdone, No Existential Cyber Risk