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TMTB Morning Wrap

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TMT Breakout
Dec 17, 2024
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Good morning. So…close…to…the holidays. Home stretch now. QQQs -30bps. Yields up 3bps. BTC +1% to $107k. NVDA - 2% to start. Let’s get straight to it…


AMD: Wolfe lowers GPU #s to $7B next year after checks and calls out weak PCs

Remember, Street is still at $~$9.3B for 2025 GPU. BAML put out an $8B # last week in their downgrade. $7B is the lowest I’ve seen and I imagine buyside will start to move closer to that number after this note. Wolfe didn’t explicitly downgrade but at the end they say “Our rating and estimates remain under review as we assess the impact.”

Wolfe notes their AI demand checks from ODMs indicate modest sequential growth from Q4'23 levels, suggesting CY25 AI revenue around $7B Firm notes lack of clarity on conservative ODM forecasts. Wolfe notes Q1 PC outlook worse than seasonal given weak demand and tough Q4 comparison, while MI350 series launch in H2'25 viewed as more meaningful catalyst for 2026. Wolfe sees challenging January earnings setup - limited visibility may prevent $10B AI revenue guidance, while $7B guide could create unrealistic expectation for future raises.

3P Roundup:

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