TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. Futures -55bps following through on weakness yesterday. Iran war fears still top of mind as Trump pushed back his Iran deadline from 3/27 to 4/6. Reports indicate Trump could send an additional 10K troops to the Middle East. Situation continues to remain very fluid. Lots of good discussion over in TMTB Chat…Oil +2%. 10 Year up another 5bps. BTC -3%.

Asia mixed overnight: TPX +0.19%, NKY -0.43%, Hang Seng +0.38%, HSCEI +0.76%, SHCOMP +0.63%, Shenzhen +1.29%, Taiwan TAIEX -0.68%, Korea KOSPI -0.4%

We’ll start with some Anthropic/OpenAI deluge then onto the usual…

Let’s get straight to it…

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Anthropic: Anthropic acknowledges testing new AI model representing ‘step change’ in capabilities, after accidental data leak reveals its existence

Fortune reports that Anthropic inadvertently exposed details of a new AI model, described internally as a “step change” in performance and potentially named “Claude Mythos,” via a publicly accessible data cache. The leaked materials suggested the model may pose unprecedented cybersecurity risks and is currently being tested with early access customers. Fortune says the cache also revealed plans for an invite-only CEO summit in Europe aimed at enterprise AI adoption. Researchers identified nearly 3,000 unpublished assets tied to Anthropic’s blog that were accessible through the unsecured data store.

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OpenAI: OpenAI Surpasses $100 Million Annualized Revenue From Ads Pilot - TheInformation

The Information reports that OpenAI’s new ChatGPT advertising pilot has already surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue in just six weeks, despite only displaying ads to less than 20% of U.S. free users. The company has secured over 600 advertisers and plans to launch a self-serve ad platform in April while exploring international expansion into Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

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OpenAI/Google: Google Gemini Adds Tool to Make It Easier to Switch From ChatGPT - Bloomberg

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OpenAI: SoftBank Secures Record $40 Billion Bridge Loan for OpenAI Stake

According to Bloomberg, SoftBank Group Corp. secured a record $40 billion non-collateralized bridge loan maturing in 12 months to finance its $30 billion follow-on investment in OpenAI and other costs, with the facility underwritten by JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., and MUFG Bank. The loan represents SoftBank’s largest-ever dollar-denominated borrowing and reflects founder Masayoshi Son’s commitment to positioning the company at the center of the global AI boom. SoftBank’s total investment in OpenAI now exceeds $60 billion, making it one of its largest holdings alongside a roughly 90% stake in Arm Holdings.

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Anthropic: Anthropic wins court order blocking Pentagon’s security threat designation

According to Financial Times, a federal judge has issued a temporary court order blocking the Pentagon’s designation of Anthropic as a national security threat and supply chain risk. Judge Rita Lin ruled that the Pentagon’s actions appear inconsistent with legitimate national security interests and that the designation risks causing financial and reputational harm that could cripple the AI startup. The Pentagon has seven days to appeal the injunction, which will not take effect until after that period expires.

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Anthropic: Claude AI Maker Anthropic Said to Weigh IPO as Soon as October

According to Bloomberg, Anthropic is considering an initial public offering as soon as October and has held early discussions with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley about leading roles in the listing. The AI company, valued at $380 billion in its most recent funding round, could raise more than $60 billion through an IPO as it competes with rival OpenAI to go public. Anthropic has partnerships with major tech firms including Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia, and recently won a court order blocking a Pentagon ban on government use of its technology.

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U +15%: Positive Pre announce with Vector +15% q/q; sunsetting ironSource and pursuing sale of Supersonic

Overall better results despite buyside already expecting Vector to grow somewhere in the teens vs. street at 10%. The IS + SS divesture will be looked at positively by bulls as it cleans up the set up and refocuses story on AI-drive ads accel - now a 30s grower & 30% margin biz doing > $650M EBITDA this year trading at 13-14x vs RDDT at 15x and APP at 20x. Runtime data integration, 28-day ROAS, and commerce remain the next catalysts. Bears will counter saying U’s position in ads is dependent on creation layer and new wave of AI native dev tools beginning to enable “engine-light” workflows especially for lightweight mobile games, allowing them to bypass U’s ecosystem.

We tend to side with the bulls and in a different market environment, would say overall set up sounds decent…

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