TMTB Morning Wrap
Good morning. Futures flattish. Stocks generally up in Asia on Thursday: TPX +0.68%, NKY +1.77%, Hang Seng -0.29%, HSCEI +0.07%, SHCOMP +1.32%, Taiwan TAIEX +0.88%. BTC Flat. Yields flattish.
Main macro news overnight was China expanding rare earth export restrictions ahead of possible Trump-Xi meeting (Reuters) although likely some negotiating posture there.
Lots to get to, so let’s get straight to it…
NVDA: Cantor Fitzgerald Raises PT to $300, Calls NVIDIA the Clear Winner in Multi-Trillion AI Buildout
Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its NVIDIA price target to $300 from $240 and reiterated an Overweight, following investor meetings in New York with Jensen Huang, Colette Kress, and other executives. The firm says momentum has only accelerated, describing NVIDIA as the dominant force in a multi-trillion-dollar AI infrastructure cycle still in its early innings. Cantor highlights a new partnership with OpenAI aimed at creating a self-hosted hyperscaler model—removing margin layers and narrowing the cost gap with ASICs to roughly 15%—which could further solidify NVIDIA’s leadership. The firm expects EPS of $8 by CY26 and $11 by CY27, well above consensus, and sees potential for $50 in earnings by 2030 as AI infrastructure spend expands toward $3–4T globally. Cantor calls NVDA its Top Pick, adding that “this is not a bubble—just the beginning.”
NVDA: US Approves Some Nvidia UAE Sales in Trump AI Diplomacy Step
The US has approved several billion dollars worth of Nvidia Corp. chip exports to the United Arab Emirates, an initial step in implementing a controversial deal that could serve as a blueprint for American AI statecraft.
The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security recently issued the Nvidia export licenses under the terms of a bilateral AI agreement hashed out in May, according to people familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity so they could discuss a sensitive issue.
U / APP: Needham Expert Call Points to Q4 Acceleration for Unity, Mixed Trends for AppLovin
Needham hosted an expert call with the CEO of InCircle Analytics to gauge trends across the mobile gaming ad tech ecosystem, offering updates on U and APP The expert was bullish on Unity, saying results should land at the high end of Q3 expectations with additional acceleration into Q4, led by strong Vector performance—momentum that does not yet assume integration with ironSource. For AppLovin, the expert saw continued strength in core mobile gaming, though with slight year-over-year deceleration expected in both Q3 and Q4. Sentiment around AppLovin’s ecommerce initiative was muted, with no new brand partners joining since its self-service rollout. Needham notes that investor channel checks have been mixed, with feedback ranging from positive to more cautious across the sector.
I think Northbeam checks out today as well but haven’t heard anything…
TSMC Reports Better-Than-Expected Sales on Sustained AI Demand
Revenue for the three-month period ending in September totaled NT$989.9 billion ($32.5 billion), according to Bloomberg News calculations based on monthly sales numbers provided by the company, while analysts on average were looking for NT$962.8 billion. The shares of Asia’s most valuable company have gained more than 30% this year thanks to the prolonged AI euphoria.
-1% MoM roughly in line with typical seasonal trends. Results imply Q3 revs 5% above midpoint of the guide.
Samsung/Memory: Nvidia GB300 confirmed to be equipped with Samsung HBM... Jensen sent a letter to Huang
NVIDIA has confirmed that it will equip its latest artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator, the GB300, with Samsung Electronics’ (005930) 5th-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM3E). With Samsung Electronics officially entering NVIDIA’s supply chain after persistent efforts, a seismic shift is expected in the global HBM market.
Given that the industry is shifting toward 6th-generation HBM4, the volume of Samsung’s HBM3E 12-layer supply for the GB300 is expected to be relatively small. However, the significance of Samsung overcoming its long-standing “technical limitations” is substantial. This could also accelerate news of Samsung passing quality tests for HBM4, which are currently underway.
OKLO: Canaccord Genuity Initiates at Buy, Targets $175 on Long-Term Nuclear Growth
Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage of Oklo with a Buy rating and a $175 price target, calling the company a next-generation leader in clean baseload energy. The firm’s DCF model extends to 2050 and assumes reactor buildouts funded primarily through debt and tax credits, a mix that could enhance returns while limiting equity dilution. Canaccord expects sustained global nuclear demand supported by rising AI-related power needs, viewing Oklo as a “vertically integrated, globally distributed nuclear utility.” While the analyst acknowledges broader market concerns about a potential AI bubble, the outlook for long-term nuclear demand remains strongly positive.
TSLA: Tesla Faces New NHTSA Probe Over Vehicles Violating Traffic Laws
US auto safety regulators opened a probe into Tesla Inc. over incidents in which its vehicles ran through red lights and violated other traffic laws while using the driver-assistance system known as Full Self-Driving.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it’s aware of 58 examples, including instances in which vehicles drove in the wrong direction on a road. The so-called preliminary evaluation involves an estimated 2.9 million vehicles, according to a filing posted on the agency’s website.
VRT: Citi Adds 90-Day Upside Catalyst Watch on Strong Data Center Demand
Citi added Vertiv to its 90-day upside Catalyst Watch, citing continued momentum from robust data center infrastructure spending and modeling ~16%+ organic growth with ~1.2x book-to-bill through 2026–27. The firm expects Vertiv to benefit from a ~56% CAGR in global capex from 2025–2029, driven by hyperscaler AI buildouts. Citi highlights Vertiv’s differentiated “one-stop” model—combining leading power and thermal products with global services—as a key advantage supporting order growth. While near-term margin headwinds persist due to “growing pains” and tariffs, the firm sees management’s execution on pricing, contract terms, and tariff mitigation as catalysts for margin expansion by late 2025, maintaining a bullish near- to medium-term setup.
IT Spending: MS: 2026 CIO Survey Shows Modest Acceleration, But AI Spend Yet to Drive Major Inflection
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