TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. Futures +20bps to start today Asian markets were mixed over night with NKY -0.4%, Hang Seng +1.1%, SHCOMP -0.5% KOSPI +1.2%, India +0.4%. China Tech +1% led by BABA + BIDU on AI optimism.

Big News overnight the massive NBIS +53% deal with MSFT, another datapoint that AI demand isn’t slowing down any time soon. Some good discussion in TMTB chat here on deal.

We get the AAPL iPhone event today at 1pm est. and ORCL/RBRK earnings after the close

GS Conference continues today (times in PST):

7:30: DSY, Epic Games, MDB, NATL, PAYO, SWKS, T
8:10: CMCSA, DDOG, DLR, GWRE, PINS, VRT, WISE
8:50: AUR, DV, IRM, OKTA, ROP, SAP, VISA
9:30: META
10:10: GOOGL
10:50: AMAT, CHRT, COIN, CRWV, FIS, IAC, SYM
11:30: CRWD, ETSY, FFIV, LYV, SBAC, ST, WMT
12:05: Lunch
12:25: OpenAI Inc.
13:05: ARM, FLEX, GTLB, NEM, NET, XYZ
13:45: Canva, CDNS, INGM, LYFT, PYPL, SFTFBF/9984, XRO
14:25: AVGO
15:05: ABNB, AFRM, DLO, NTAP, PI, WTC, ZOM
15:45: AXON, IHRT, KYVO, TOST, YELP, ZOOM
16:25: CRM

Lots to get to, so let’s get to it…

---

NBIS: Goldman Sachs Sees Microsoft Deal as Major Catalyst for AI Infrastructure Growth

The firm estimates the total contract value at ~$17.4B through 2031 (potentially $19.4B with added capacity), well above Nebius’ prior mid-term target of $4–6B. GS notes the deal should provide both cash flow and debt-financing flexibility to accelerate capacity expansion, with management already guiding for 1GW of contracted capacity by 2026. While near-term revenue clarity is still limited, the bank sees the agreement as supportive of stronger growth from 2026 onward, with attractive economics and solid gross margins implied.

---

ORCL Buyside Bogeys