TMTB Morning Wrap

QQQs +2.21% with some nice follow through after Friday’s 50d bounce and hammer candle after the better gov’t shutdown news overnight - momentum names powering us back up although volumes were a bit muted across the board and breadth narrow again (winners continue to lead). We used the strength today to clean up our books and lower gross/net a bit, focusing on high quality/idio ideas and getting rid of “B” long ideas like RDDT or high valuation names with no NT catalysts like SHOP despite us liking the narrative.

Let’s get to it…

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AI / SEMIS

• AI trade back in full force today with strength across the board — leaders continue to push us higher with memory/HDDs, optical, and TPU exposed names (LITE/COHR) leading us higher. Next AI datapoints post-CRWV today: AMD analyst day tomorrow, NBIS AMAT results this week, NVDA/BIDU next week, MSFT Ignite Nov 18-21, AMZN Re-invent Dec 1- 5, and ORCL SNOW MRVL DELL earnings in Dec. Rumors Gemini 3 due out in a couple weeks and ChatGPT 5.x out before Dec. Cantor conference tomorrow (h/t SBP in the chat):

Rumors ChatGPT 5.1 out Nov 24…

• NVDA+6% as TSM +3% monthly results slightly better than expected, Jensen asking TSM for more wafers (‘very strong demand .. growing month by month, stronger and stronger’), MS saying Q4 racks 14-15k, and several positive previews across the street today ahead of earnings next week

• AMD +4% ahead of analyst day tomorrow. Mgmt has been pretty clear in call backs that this is a financial event and no additional customers coming tomorrow, so that’s not expected (some speculating AMZN comes at Re:invent instead), Investors want a big TAM number and focused on GMs and maybe some LT EPS guide. Tough to tell what bogeys are here, but most think getting a good sense of the ramp would be good, and a downtick on GMs the most negative. We trimmed a bit today as we follow our rule of taking some off the table after a rally into a catalyst.