Happy Friday Thursday! QQQs +80bps to start the day as TSM reported a pretty solid set of numbers. Trump also touted “Big Progress” in meeting with Japan. Yields +2-3bps across the curve. BTC +40bps. China +1.5%.
We get NFLX tonight - expects generally for a headline/ebit beat given fx has shifted to being a tailwind since last q. First q they won’t report or guide net adds so more focus will be on margins and ARM. Stock pretty crowded as it’s been seen as safe haven from tariffs + China and has rallied +5-6% since the long-term guide leak earlier this week.
Let’s get to it:
TSM +3.5%: Strong Q1/Q2 and reiterated FY25 guide to grow mid 20s y/y
Q2 Rev the stand out coming in at 11-14% q/q vs street at +5% and buyside expects of HSD.
Reiterated capex of $38-42B.
Overall, strong q and call went fairly well. Nitpicks I’m hearing is why no guide up given the big Q2 guide and saying supply/demand will be less tight in 2026.
A few key points from the call:
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