TMTB Morning Wrap
Good morning. QQQs +1% as easing middle east tensions continue to move “risk-on” back into the drivers seat. Oil is lower by another 4% while BTC is +1% as yields tick up slightly.
Some tweets from DJT this morning:
Trump: Both Israel and Iran violated the ceasefire. Iran will never rebuild its nuclear program. I'm not happy with Israel. Not happy with Iran either. But really unhappy with Israel.
That’s out of the way - lots to get to in Tech so let’s get to it…
LYFT: TD Cowen Upgrades to Buy, Hikes PT to $21; Sees Multiple Growth Levers and AV Upside
TD Cowen upgraded Lyft to Buy and raised its price target to $21 from $16, citing execution under new leadership and several underappreciated growth drivers. These include expansion in tier-2 markets, the FREEnow acquisition, ongoing product innovation like Price Lock, and new partnerships. The firm sees Lyft tracking toward strong 3-year targets: ~15% GB CAGR, 4% EBITDA margins, and $900M in FCF by 2027. Autonomous vehicles are viewed as a long-term TAM expander, with pilots starting in 2025. Cowen believes Lyft's stock is attractive at ~6x ’26 EV/EBITDA, offering ~40% upside based on their DCF model. Insurance costs are easing, ad revenue is scaling, and Cowen expects 90%+ EBITDA-to-FCF conversion.
UBER +3.5%: Uber says riders in Atlanta can now access Waymo autonomous rides - link
Starting today, June 24, a limited number of Waymo autonomous vehicles will gradually become available on the Uber (UBER) app for riders in select areas of Atlanta, Georgia, the company announced in a blog post.
"Waymo vehicles will operate across 65 square miles of Atlanta - from Downtown to Buckhead to Capitol View and beyond. Any trip starting or ending outside this area, including airport trips, will not be eligible to match with a Waymo. Waymo vehicles will be operating 24 hours a day... At launch, Waymo vehicles will operate across 65 square miles of Atlanta and we expect to gradually expand the operating area over time. We commit to letting you know when this is happening and where... At launch, there will be a limited number of Waymo vehicles on the road in Atlanta. We expect this number to grow gradually over time," the blog post noted
Stock acting better last couple days post TSLA launch…
EA: Roth/MKM Upgrades to Buy, Hikes PT to $185; Battlefield Launch Seen as Pivotal Catalyst
Roth/MKM upgraded Electronic Arts to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $185 from $175, citing a key inflection point and the potential for a successful Battlefield launch this fall. While core sports titles continue to grow modestly, the firm expects new content—including The Sims variants, Skate, and Star Wars: Zero Company—to support a multi-year growth trajectory. After several years of flat bookings and EPS driven by financial engineering, investor sentiment remains cautious. However, Roth/MKM believes changes to Battlefield’s development over the past few years put the franchise in a strong position to rebound and drive upside.
SNOW: Morgan Stanley Initiates at Overweight, $262 PT; Sees Focused Execution and $300B+ AI/Data Opportunity
Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Snowflake with an Overweight rating and $262 price target, implying ~23% upside. The firm highlights a leadership shift under CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy, who is driving sharper execution across sales, GTM, and product development. Snowflake is showing renewed momentum, with product innovation spanning core warehousing, data engineering, AI/ML, and apps. A $200M+ run-rate in data engineering and a clear strategy to capture the $300B+ AI/data market support the bullish view. Morgan Stanley sees Snowflake as more focused, with a stronger growth trajectory and improved relevance in AI-driven enterprise data modernization.
MU: Digitimes Warns HBM Shift Driving DDR4/DDR5/VRAM Price Surge; …Hynix +7%+ overnight
HBM capacity crunch triggers price surge in DDR5 and VRAM markets Rising demand for AI servers is forcing memory makers to shift their production priorities, sending shockwaves through the semiconductor supply chain. As manufacturers focus more on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), prices for DDR4 modules have spiked sharply, raising concerns that DDR5 and video RAM (VRAM) prices could climb as well in the coming months.
AI surge shifts memory focus, boosting DDR4 prices despite DDR5 growth The explosive growth of AI has redirected ODMs' attention toward server markets and forced memory manufacturers to prioritize High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) production. This realignment has accelerated the decline of DDR4 output, causing its prices to soar, sometimes even surpassing those of DDR5. However, DDR4 remains the go-to choice for many notebook brands catering to mainstream buyers, while DDR5 adoption accounts for roughly 60% of new models.
Hynix already breaking out to new ATHs…
MU’s turn next? (earnings tomorrow)…as we’ve been writing in our weekly last few weeks: MU offers the 2nd most upside beta to “AI vibes” in semis (2nd to CRWV’s #1)…don’t sleep on how fast this can move…cyclical + secular tailwinds aligned …
MSFT: OpenAI Is Nabbing Microsoft Customers, Fueling Partners’ Rivalry - Bloomberg
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