TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. Futures -20bps to start the week. BTC -2% following through to the downside after last week’s false breakout. China +50bps. All eyes on Powell at Jackson Hole this Friday. We likely get GOOGL DOJ remedies this week as well.

Lots to get to this morning, so let’s dive right in…

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MDB: Citi Reiterates Bullish View, Sees AI Tailwinds and Multiple Catalysts; PT to $405; Adds to 90 day catalyst watch list

Stock was +7% as Valueact took a 2.5% stake in the co…

Good note here from Citi…

Citi says its deep dive supports a more positive long-term outlook for MongoDB than consensus, calling the company a likely AI winner despite ongoing debates over relevance versus Postgres. Their analysis of ~75 AI startups shows MongoDB usage in nearly half, underscoring its traction in emerging tech stacks. With AI-related revenue contribution still small but ramping, Citi estimates MDB’s growth could stay in the mid-20s% through FY26–27, slightly ahead of Street.

Citi outlines the catalyst path: CEO and CFO will be at their TMT conf on Sept 3 post -earnings and inaugural analyst day in Sept and thinks the new CFO will guide FY28 profitability target of ~20% in non-gaap operating margins.

TMTB: We continue to like the set up here heading into the q and expect a 2nd strong q of execution and Atlas acceleration will help put structural fears around Post-gres in the rear-view of investors minds.

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DUOL: KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight with $460 PT, Citing Multiple Growth Drivers

KeyBanc lifts Duolingo from Sector Weight to Overweight with a $460 price target, which reflects 38.3x 2027E EV/EBITDA. The firm argues that concerns about slowing engagement and AI headwinds are overstated. KeyBanc says a combination of product updates (like Energy and Duocon rollouts), price optimizations, and viral marketing should drive upside to bookings and EBITDA forecasts, now projected at $1.45B/$1.79B and $416M/$570M in 2026E–2027E, respectively. The team highlights that AI innovations are more likely to support monetization than hurt it, while sentiment around Duolingo has stabilized.

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DUOL: Citi Initiates with Buy and $400 PT, Highlighting Durable Growth and GenAI Upside

Citi began coverage on Duolingo with a Buy rating and $400 price target, calling the company an early-stage education technology leader with strong engagement and ~40% growth in DAUs, bookings, and revenue. Citi argues that expansion into verticals like music, math, and chess provides long-term optionality beyond language learning, while AI risks are overstated. The firm actually sees GenAI as a net positive, noting Duolingo is already leveraging it to enhance the product and accelerate content creation. Citi also highlights Duolingo’s strong gamification, brand, and scale advantages, which they believe support >40% incremental EBITDA margins as TAM expands.

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PANW: Buyside Bogeys for tonight