TMTB Morning Wrap

QQQs -35bps, yields flattish, BTC +1%.

Main news post-close yesterday was Trump administration started Section 232 investigations on April 1 into pharmaceuticals and semis. Probes need to be completed within 270 days, but can come sooner than that. Here’s the Link.

Let’s get right to it…

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NFLX: WSJ leaks LT NFLX mgmt goals for 2030

LT guide: $30B in Operating Income, $78B in Total Revs, and 410M subs.

Street at 28B in Op inc, and 411M in paid subs. Their guide implies 12% Rev CAGR vs street at 10% .

In general, $NFLX IR team one of most savvy in Tech. They don't like to rug pull so to leak something like this out close to earnings likely means good imo...we know headline #s likely going to be good just because of fx...the glass half full read is that they releasing LT stuff because NT won’t be as good on Thursday, but I buy in to the former given NFLX’s track record of releasing tidbits ahead of good q’s.

Bernstein also out recapping takeaways from their call with Parrot Analytics yesterday

Bernstein analysts indicate Q1 2025 net subscriber additions should exceed 3M before paid sharing and potentially 4.5M+ with it, with EMEA contributing most while UCAN has "become more of a retention market." Bernstein notes paid sharing could account for ~30M additions over two years, potentially boosting estimates, though EMEA demand has declined since February. Bernstein reports UCAN is now retention-focused where "TV shows/general entertainment remains the most effective retention tool," with modest churn from price hikes, maintaining that ~1M fewer additions would have minimal financial impact given the 302M existing subscriber base.

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Third Party Data Roundup

GOOGL: Yipit finished~2ppts below on search and ad rev growth for Q1, although both accelerated in the past 2 weeks

CVNA: According to Yipit, Overall revs accel’d 5ppts to 43% from 38% in latest week in Q2. Tracking close to ~40% vs street at 23% for Q2

AAPL: Cleveland says they are seeing