QQQs +40bps, BTC -60bps, yields flattish, China +1%. Let’s get straight to it….
AAPL: Some more negative news this morning following yesterday’s weakness with more weak China data pts + Bloomberg saying China now will subsidize domestic handsets
AAPL/Huawei: China to Subsidize Smartphone Purchases in Bid to Lift Spending
China will expand consumption subsidies to cover smartphones and other electronics, in a step to promote domestic spending as external headwinds pick up.
A national trade-in program that currently applies to home appliances and cars will broaden this year to include personal devices like phones, tablets and smartwatches, officials from the nation’s top economic planning agency said in a briefing Friday.
AAPL: Apple's China troubles mount as foreign phone sales sink for 4th month
Shipments to China of foreign-branded smartphones, including Apple Inc's iPhone, fell by 47.4% in November from a year earlier, according to data released on Friday from a government-affiliated research firm, down for the fourth month.
Calculations based on the data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) showed that foreign brand shipments decreased to 3.04 million units from 5.769 million units a year earlier.
Barclays also comments on weak China smartphone data saying Dec Q and March Q numbers at risk. Based on BARC's analysis of China smartphone unit shipment “sell in” data (MIIT), iPhone shipment momentum cooled further in Nov noting China iPhone units in the month of Nov. were down 48% Y/Y and down ~2.5M from Nov. 2023. According to BARC's sell-through checks, iPhone sell-through in China was muted since the IP16 launch, with China sell-throughs down roughly 20% Y/Y for the month of November. AAPL continues to experience market share losses in China, and BARC's checks suggested roughly 400bps share loss in November in China for iPhones. With October and November data points being softer than expected, BARC expects Dec-Q is at risk for AAPL with iPhone units tracking below expectations by 2M units.
AAPL: Bernstein raises target to $260 from $240
Bernstein raises Apple target to $260 from $240, viewing it as quality compounder with mid-single-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, and double-digit EPS growth. Values platform strength (2.3B+ devices, 1B unique users) but notes peak valuation and tepid iPhone 16 cycle. Suggests buying below $220 or February-April timeframe. Projects potential $290+ based on FY26 $9 EPS at 32x-33x multiple.
AAPL: Apple App Store revenue grew 15% in fiscal Q1, says BofA
BofA maintains Buy rating and $256 target on Apple, citing SensorTower data showing App Store Q1 revenue up 15.4% YoY to $8.1B, with December growth of 12.7% globally and 7.2% in China. Estimates unchanged.
3P Roundup:
NFLX: M-sci says gross adds accelerated significantly in US and Europe over the holidays but cancellations also increased…TMTB: We think big net add beat + stock split hopes likely have stock higher before the print in a few weeks
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to TMT Breakout to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.