Good morning - QQQs +40bps as yields are roughly flat. China +2 and we are getting some nice follow through from BABA. We get US flash PMIs at 9:45am and UMich Sentiment at 10am. Fairly quiet Friday - let’s get to it…(I’m on the road today so might not be able to get an EOD Wrap out)
Earnings Quick hits:
BKNG +4%: Clean beat across the board; conservative guide enough for bulls
BKNG followed EXPE/ABNB with an even better beat across the board. 13% RN growth vs bogey 10% and guide 6-8% and GB CC growth at +18% vs bogey 10-11%. Revenue CC was also +15% which cleared the bar of the street at +9%. Surprisingly, alt accommodations +19%, growing faster than VRBO and ABNB.
Q1 room night guided to 5-7% vs bogeys of 7%, but will be deemed conservative given huge beat they just put up and leap day/easter timing year.
FY25 GB guided to at least 8% vs bogeys of HSD…100bps EBITDA margin expansion guidance in 2025, with ongoing profitability unlock driven by AI…
Stock is well-owned and expectations had risen after EXPE/ABNB, but not much to not like as guide will likely be seen as v conservative given the big Q4 Beat. Investors will say BKNG deserves multiple premium to EXPE/ABNB given execution and sustainability of growth while alternative continues to outgrow. Mgmt was bullish on travel demand on the call and co initiated dividend. Bulls staying in control after this print
XYZ -9%: Weaker Q1 guide and aggressive guide weighs on stock
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