QQQs +40%; BTC +40bps; China +40bps; Yields ticking up slightly.
Let’s get straight to it…Earnings first, then Research/News…
EARNINGS:
TTD: Blowout beat. $616M vs street at $576M, biggest revenue beat in 4 year (7%). Guide in line, but looks conservative
Q1 EBITDA $208M vs street at $148M, expanding 190bps to 34%
Q2 Revs “at least” $682, where street is
Q2 EBITDA $259M vs. street $254M
Management called out broad-based strength across most verticals, with CTV once again the fastest-growing channel and international outpacing domestic.
Solid print all around after stock has been a favored short in the HF community all quarter. Top line crushed accel’ing 3 ppts on a 5 ppts tougher comp to 25%. Now comps get easier and guide only implies 17% y/y growth, which seems v conservative (accel narrative on the table now).
Key takeaways
Guidance embeds macro caution but still edges estimates: 2Q25 revenue is pegged at “at least” $682 m (+17 % y/y) with adj. EBITDA of $259 m, both a touch above Street models even after management layered in softer sequential growth assumptions tied to large global brands.
Competitive narrative vs. Amazon: On the call, Jeff Green downplayed Amazon’s DSP threat, noting that Amazon’s focus remains on its own retail/Prime Video inventory, whereas TTD’s independence and Open-Internet scope resonate with agencies seeking neutrality; investors viewed the commentary as alleviating one of the key overhangs from 4Q. He sounded decent, slightly better than on the conference circuit and on last call, but we still have our concerns as the competitive landscape continues to evolve: “Our CTV growth is faster than Amazon's advertising growth and we're very clear on what Amazon's playbook is. It's actually very similar to the Google playbook. Google is primarily focused on Search / Gemini and YouTube. And so DV 360 has largely become a tool to buy YouTube. That is their -- their focus, that is their bias.”
One nit is Q1 EBITDA leverage just 23% compared to 52% in Q1 last year and close to 50% through 2024. Mgmt explained this by saying investments in talents and products, but an area of concern if margin expansion going forward
Kokai now a tail-wind: ~65 % of clients are transacting through the new AI-powered Kokai platform (vs. <50 % in 4Q); TTD highlighted 24 % lower cost per conversion and 20 % lower CAC for advertisers, helping to regenerate performance budgets after last quarter’s stumble.
Buybacks The company repurchased a record $386 m of stock during the quarter—about 7 % of year-end cash
Bulls argue that TTD’s quick bounce-back underscores the resiliency of its model and remains a best in class compounder: Kokai’s early cost-per-conversion wins, accelerating CTV budgets, and a growing roster of joint business plans (now 40 % of spend) position TTD to keep taking share just as ad dollars shift from mobile to CTV and retail media. Bulls will say AMZN poses limited risk current due to restricted acccess to quality 3p streaming inventory and insufficient reach compared to TTD. Bulls will say guide is conservative and comps get easier the next two quarters, which means a potential acceleration is on the table and mis 20s growth for 2025 is not out of the question (street at 17%). With stock at 20x EBTIDA, there is limited downside.
We’ve written up the bear case several times here at TMTB, which mainly centers on competition and structural concerns stemming from AMZN. Bears will also counter that the ad cycle remains fragile—auto and CPG categories were already showing early softness—and the 2Q guide’s conservative sequential growth hints at a tougher spending backdrop ahead, along with potential pricing pressure as Kokai adoption broaders, They remain concerned about intensifying competition from scaled walled-garden DSPs like Amazon and potential pricing pressure as Kokai adoption broadens.
Our view: We covered our short over the last month - while we still have plenty of competitive and structural concerns, with stock having pulled back, crowded on the short side, conservative guide and #s which look too low for 2025, we stay on the sidelines. We’re open-minded about potentially re-engaging if the set up is right at some point.
PINS +12%: Better than feared with +16% rev growth vs bogeys of 15.5% and better EBITDA. Q2 rev guided slightly above street, but EBITDA below
Q2 Revs guided to $960M - $980M or +12-15% vs street at $963M
Q2 EBITDA $217 - $237M below street at $237M
On macro, mgmt said: “While we are not immune to the macro-environment, we are confident in our multiple revenue initiatives, the steady ongoing execution of our plans and our ability to compete effectively across a number of scenarios.”
Management called the overall ad market “healthy” but noted selective pullbacks from Asia-based e-commerce sellers tied to tariff uncertainty and continued pressure on CPMs; advertisers are reallocating spend toward Europe and ROW, which are growing faster.
Record engagement: global MAUs reached 570 m (+10 % y/y, 7 m ahead of expectations); ad impressions grew 49 % y/y while CPMs fell 22 % as mix shifted toward lower-priced inventory and developing markets.
Early payoff from AI/DR initiatives: Performance+ tools, multimodal visual search and the Google/Magnite partnerships are driving higher click-through rates and attracting incremental DR budgets.
Lots of fears going in given CPG exposure but PINS delivered with a solid beat vs expect and their new tools seem to be ramping very well. CEO sounded confident but prudent on the call. While investors will still worry about ad headwinds, only a 2ppts decel on a 11ppts tougher comp in Q1 despite fx headwind. Fx now becomes a tailwind and comps get easier the next two quarters, which makes guide look pretty conservative and puts a potential accel on the table next quarter.
Bulls believe PINS is only in the early innings of monetizing its large and still-expanding user base. They point to accelerating international growth, the ramp of AI-driven Performance+ ad products, stronger direct-response traction and visual search, all of which should lift engagement, ad load and ultimately pricing. Bulls will say high teens growth is on the table for the rest of the year as comps get easier. With stock trading at only 14x FY26 P/E, near the low end historically, r/r skews very positive.
Bears counter that the steep CPM decline underscores persistent pricing pressure, while the Q2 EBITDA guide shows limited incremental margin despite stronger revenues amid rising R&D spend. They worry that macro uncertainty, tariff-related disruptions to Asia-based merchants, and still-limited visibility into third-party data contributions could cap ARPU growth and stall operating-leverage. Our friend J. Favuzza from Jefferies also pointed out this chart below that says that PINS gives back most of its quarterly gains every earnings season;
Our view: We like PINS. We called out positive r/r in low 30s on the way down, and we still think the same on the way up. PINS seems be executing v well with new products, engagement is strong, and comps get easier rest of the year - there’s a chance we could see revs get close to the 20% # the few remaining bulls still believe in. However, despite a positive reporting season from the ad names, I still worry about cyclicality of spend, especially in CPG bucket as we think there’s a good chance China tariffs will end up >50%; however, we bucket PINS along with META as two of the better ad names vs. GOOGL/RDDT.
EXPE -10%: Q1/Q2 GB and room nights miss as mgmt calls out softness in US demand and lowers FY guide
On macro, mgmt said: “We also noticed softness in demand for inbound travel into the US, which was down 7% as part of that inbound bookings from Canada fell nearly 30%.” EXPE noted April GBV growth was "somewhat softer than March," only partially explained by Easter timing and said hotels are discounting to defend volumes so ADRs are under pressure
Management cut FY-25 gross-bookings growth to 2–4 % (from 4–6 %) and revenue growth to 3–5 %, both below the Street’s ~5 % view, citing the softer U.S. demand and weaker inbound travel.$75M benefit from April RIF (net of some reinvestment) drove FY25 margin guide from +50 bps to +75-100 bps.
Bulls argue that Expedia’s story is transitioning from revenue acceleration to margin delivery: B2B and advertising continue to post double-digit growth, the cost-cutting program is visibly expanding EBITDA, and the stock’s 8× 2026e EV/EBITDA multiple offers ample upside if even modest U.S. leisure recovery materialises. They also point to product initiatives—Trip Matching on Instagram, AI integrations with OpenAI/Copilot—and an active buyback and ABNB/BKNG are much more expensive.
Bears will say US travel demand is slipping from “growth scare” to genuine deceleration: domestic and inbound volumes deteriorated through April, hotels are leaning on non-refundable lower-rate inventory to protect occupancy, and lodging partners have begun discounting. Booking windows for hotels are lengthening slightly, while vacation-rental windows are compressing, hinting at softer leisure spending. Expedia’s outsized U.S. mix (≈ ⅔ of bookings) leaves it more exposed than Booking or Airbnb. The argument before this q was the BKNG/ABNB were more expensive for similar RN growth, but that is no longer the case after EXPE unexpecedly took down Fy25 numbers, which will raise fears over share losses. Bears will also dislike the guidance cut - despite it being attributed to macro - so soon after the “turnaround” narrative was taking hold.
Yup, seems like the bears have it…
Piper Sandler downgrades to sell this morning saying the company's Q1 results were mixed with bookings and revenue missing expectations by 1%, offset by better EBITDA. Piper says management's commentary around U.S. inbound travel and the business-to-consumer business "was discouraging and suggests a tough slog from here." It could also get incrementally worse, says Piper, which cut estimates and downgraded Expedia to Underweight.
Q2 Bookings guided to +2-4% q/q vs. the Street at 4.8%.
Q1:
Booked Room Nights: 107.7M vs. Street 108.6M — slight miss
Gross Bookings: $31.45B vs. Street $31.76B — miss
Revenue: $2.99B vs. Street $3.02B — miss
Adjusted EBITDA: $296M vs. Street $270M — beat
Adjusted EPS: $0.40 vs. Street $0.36 — beat.
LYFT: Better GB and EBITDA and says they have not seen signs of consumer weakness
Key takeaways
Solid demand but price still the swing factor. Rides rose 16 % YoY and active riders grew 10 %, yet a shift toward shorter suburban and Canadian trips plus competitive discounting pulled the take-rate lower. Management said the pricing backdrop “feels healthier” than in 4Q and expects mix and cost actions to rebuild margin.
Adj. EBITDA of ~$106 m (2.6 % of GBs) beat consensus by about 15 %
2Q25 gross-bookings outlook of $4.41–4.57 bn (-0 %/+2 % vs. consensus midpoint) and adj. EBITDA of $115–130 m (-6 %/+6 %)
Capital-return acceleration. The buy-back authorization climbed to $750 m, with $200 m earmarked for the next three months
Early traction from Lyft Silver (65+ demographic), Price Lock membership (+21 % QoQ) and Black-Car (+2× overall growth) points to deeper wallet share, while the planned FREEnow acquisition would add nine European markets (~€1 bn GBs) and the Mobility AV pilot debuts in Atlanta this summer.
Bulls believe Lyft’s record driver supply, rising trip frequency and tighter expense discipline will sustain double-digit rides growth and drive outsized EBITDA and free-cash-flow expansion, all while the stock trades at a meaningful discount to Uber and other consumer-internet peers. Bulls point to new products, the FREEnow deal, advertising momentum and an enlarged buy-back as additional catalysts, as well as AV catalysts beginning with the Atlanta launch this summer, which puts them in direct competition with UBER.
Bears argue that Lyft is effectively buying volume: ride growth is outpacing bookings because average price per trip is falling, take-rate compression continued in 1Q, and guidance merely met Street. Medium term, bears worry insurance inflation, regulatory risks and intensifying competition could cap margin gains, and remain unconvinced that the nascent AV effort or European expansion will move the needle near-term.
Sheridan at Goldman upgrades Lyft to Buy , sees 'compelling risk/reward'…While short-term debates will likely stay rooted in industry trends around rideshare pricing, market share fluctuations, positioning against the autonomous vehicle theme and/or any changes in consumer discretionary behavior, the firm sees strong execution in a stable industry backdrop for Lyft and believes that shares are dislocated from the company's earnings power in the next two to three years, the analyst tells investors.
Q1 Gross Bookings: $4.162B vs. Street $4.156B
Q1 Active Riders: 24.2M vs. Street 24.07M
Q1 Revenue: $1.450B vs. Street $1.469B
Q1 Adj. EBITDA: $106.5M vs. Street $93M
Q2 Gross Bookings Guide: $4.41B–$4.57B vs. Street $4.482B
Q2 Adj. EBITDA Guide: $115M–$130M vs. Street $124M
HUBS -5%: Smaller upside than normal; maintains FY25 cc growth guide
Revenue beat of 2.3% was below average beat of 4% and lowest since 2017. Subscription beat at $698.7M (+16% Y/Y) vs street at $685M and billings at $766.8M (+20% Y/Y) vs street at $728M.
The Q2 cc rev guide of 16% was slightly better than buyside bogeys. HUBS authorized a $500M buyback, their first ever
On macro: “While we haven't seen a significant change in our business trends, we are seeing a heightened focus on value and a higher level of uncertainty regarding the economic environment, which we expect to persist through the remainder of the year.… we did not flow through our Q1 outperformance into the full year outlook. And the decision not to do that is really a reflection of the increased macro uncertainty that you heard both Yamini and I talk about in the prepared remarks.”
Q2 and FY25 Guidance:
Q2 Revenue:
$738-740M (implies +16% Y/Y) vs Street ~$725M
FY25 Revenue:
Raised to $3.036-3.044B (from $2.995B prior) vs Street ~$3.02B
FY25 Non-GAAP EPS:
$9.29-9.37 vs Street ~$9.15
NET +9%: Solid Q1 inline with bogeys and big cRPO beat of 31% y/y
Revs reached $479 million, roughly $10 million ahead of the $469 million Street view, up 27 % y/y and inline with bogeys.
Management guided 2Q revenue to $500–501 million, inline with street, and it kept full-year 2025 revenue at $2.09-2.094 billion and non-GAAP EPS at $0.79-0.80 despite the first-quarter beat. Highest NN ACV growth in 3 years. Billings accel’d to 70% from 31%. RPO accel’d 3ppts to 38% on a 3 ppts tougher comp.
Why FY-25 guide stayed flat? Management cited an “uncertain crystal ball” tied to potential tariff effects and unpredictable enterprise demand; the $130 million mega-deal won’t meaningfully enter revenue until 2H-25, so mgmt said they are opting to be conservative/prudent rather than raising.
On macro: “We haven't seen anything. And I know some other people have commented that they have. But if we look-back one, three, six months, there hasn't been a change to what we see in terms of HTP requests, in terms of overall volume. Volume and that's true both in the US and around the world. Internet traffic has held pretty, pretty steady.”
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