TMTB Morning Wrap
Good morning. Futures -90bps this morning as concerns around the collapse of the ceasefire has Oil +3%/Yields +3bps as Trump said that ceasefire is on “life support” and “more seriously considering a resumption of major combat operations than he has in recent weeks.” Fun.
Asia was mixed with Korea leading the way lower -2% for its biggest loss in over a month as a top policymaker said the nation should pay citizens a “dividend” using taxes on AI profits
Samsung/SK Hynix -5%.
In Tech semis -2% following Korea weaker early in the pre market while sw the main outperformer. Recent AI leaders all down early : SNDK/MU -3%, INTC -5%, STX/WDC -3%, QCOM -3%.
Let’s get to it…
NVDA: Jensen to Miss China Trip After Year of Travels With Trump
Keeping Huang off the official delegation list sends a strong signal to the government in Beijing that Chinese AI labs won’t have much success in obtaining top-performing chips like those made by Nvidia, according to Ryan Fedasiuk, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
“The Trump administration understands how important computing power is to winning the AI race with China,” Fedasiuk said. “There just isn’t much for American chip companies to talk about with the Chinese government.”
MDB: Citi Opens Positive Catalyst Watch on AI-Driven Atlas Consumption Upside
Citi reiterates Buy/High Risk, raises estimates/PT to $450, and opens a positive Catalyst Watch, arguing MongoDB is emerging as a key beneficiary of exploding AI-native workloads and “vibe-coded” applications. Citi’s checks suggest significant Atlas consumption ramps underway across marquee AI customers (Anthropic, Cursor, ElevenLabs, Mercor), with AI momentum potentially adding ~2pts to Q1 Atlas growth and driving 30%+ Atlas growth through FY27. The firm also argues MongoDB’s write-optimized architecture is increasingly advantaged for AI/agentic workloads relative to traditional relational databases like Postgres, supporting a more durable long-term AI consumption thesis.
GTLB: Announces RIF to be finalized on June 1st and reaffirmed guide
According to CEO Bill Staples’ letter, GTLB outlined a broad restructuring aimed at becoming leaner and more agile in the agentic AI era. Changes: 1) reducing exposure in smaller international markets by up to 30%, flattening parts of the org by removing three layers of management 2) doubling the number of smaller independent R&D teams to ~60 3) rebuilding internal workflows around AI agents. Mgmt said 1Q27 results remain on track with guidance and reaffirmed FY27 guidance, with most cost savings expected to be reinvested into accelerating agentic AI initiatives.
GTLB: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform on Restructuring Risk
Raymond James downgrades GTLB to Market Perform following management’s restructuring announcement, arguing the magnitude of organizational change creates elevated execution risk despite FY27 guidance reaffirmation. The firm worries internal disruption could hurt innovation, sales productivity, and customer expansion at a time when GTLB is already seeing weaker base customer adds, lower DBNRR, and slowing growth (~31% in FY25 to ~16% FY27E). While near-term relief is possible after guidance was maintained, Raymond James believes investors will likely wait for proof the restructuring improves execution before turning more constructive.