TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. QQQs -1.2% to start the day as 10 yr and 30 yr are near 2007 highs while Iran continues to show little progress. Semis -3.5% vs software flat.

Main chatter among investors is the $65B revenue number being reported for Anthropic, with most of the focus on the slowing 4-week growth. You could call it a bit of an expectations miss given Yipit had numbers closer to $75-80B floating around, but it’s unclear what’s net vs. gross, or whether we’re comparing a weekly annualized number with a 28-day average. Who knows how much of this is partly expectations management from the savvy Anthropic team.

Still, 15% 4-week growth is north of 100% y/y. It’s the dreaded “2nd derivative slowing” Tech investors loathe to hear, but look at the chart. If you shorted at peak growth at the end of March, you missed the entire April-June rally. That said, hard to blame tech investors for flinching: the last time they heard the words “2nd derivative slowing,” memory stocks got cut roughly in half, so some weakness in semis makes sense.

Overnight, Asia was mostly red: TPX -1.05%, NKY -2.54%, Hang Seng +0.07%, HSCEI +0.16%, SHCOMP +0.19%, Shenzhen -0.45%, Taiwan TAIEX -1.2%, Korea KOSPI -1.55%. SK Hynix -2%; Samsung -4%.

Let’s get to it.

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NVDA: BofA Says Vendor Financing Risks Are More Than Priced In; Reiterates Buy / $350 PO

BofA argues NVDA’s push to secure every AI input — chips, land, power and shell — for frontier labs and neoclouds is strategically valuable today, but increases balance-sheet risk if demand slows. Even after haircutting financing-related FCF, its SOTP implies NVDA trades at a 34–50% discount to peer-adjusted value. The clearest re-rating lever is capital returns: NVDA currently directs ~50% of FCF to buybacks/dividends versus 75–100% for peers, and BofA thinks lifting that share could improve perceived earnings quality and the stock’s multiple.

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MU: UBS Says CY27 Supply/Demand Is Even Tighter Than CY26, with HBM Pricing and SCA Visibility Supporting More Durable Earnings