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TMTB: META MSFT GOOGL NOW First takes

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TMT Breakout
Oct 29, 2025
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META -8% revs inline w buyside bogeys; headline EPS is depressed by a one-time tax charge; margin miss Q4 revenue guide brackets Street but light of bogeys, capex/opex step up

Margin miss and Q4 top line guide a bit light weighing on stock. Up ticking on capex saying “notably larger” than 2025, previous comment was similar dollar growth to 2025 (which implied >$105B), so this implies something bigger than that. Buyside at around $110-$115, so about in line with buyside

FQ3’25: META

Revenue $51.24B, +26% y/y (last q ~22% y/y) vs Street ~$49.5B and bogeys of $51B

EPS (GAAP) $1.05 vs Street $6.69 (ex one-time tax, EPS ~$7.25).

Operating Margin (GAAP) 40% vs Street ~41%.

Family of Apps Revenue $50.77B vs Street ~$48.9B.

Reality Labs Revenue $0.47B vs Street ~$0.32B.

Ad Impressions (y/y) +14% vs Street ~+10–13%.

Avg Price per Ad (y/y) +10% vs Street ~+8–10%.

DAP (Family Daily Active People) 3.54B vs Street ~3.50B.

Capex $19.37B vs Street ~$18.6–19.0B.

Free Cash Flow $10.62B vs Street ~$11–12B.

(Note: GAAP EPS was impacted by a one-time, non-cash U.S. tax charge of $15.93B; excluding it, EPS would have been $7.25 )


FQ4’25 Guidance

Revenue $56–59B (FX tailwind ~1% y/y) vs Street ~$57.3B. and bogeys of $60B at high end

FY25 Total Expenses $116–118B (raised from $114–118B).

FY25 Capex $70–72B (raised low end from $66–72B).

Q4 Effective Tax Rate (guide) 12–15%.

Early FY26 Color Capex dollar growth “notably larger” than 2025; total expenses to grow significantly faster than 2025 (infrastructure and cloud the main drivers)


MSFT -3%: Beat on revenue/EPS with Azure +40% y/y (+39% cc) missing bogeys of 40% ahead of ~37% Street (bogeys for guide is 1-2 ppts decel); Microsoft Cloud +26%, cRPO +51% to $392B, and OP margin ~49%;

Azure guide comes on call at 5:30pm

Revenue $77.7B, +18% y/y (last q ~15% y/y) vs Street ~$75.3B.
Non-GAAP EPS $4.13 vs Street ~$3.66–3.67.
GAAP EPS $3.72 vs Street ~$3.66–3.67.
Azure (cc) +39% (reported +40%) vs Street ~+37% cc.
Microsoft Cloud Revenue $49.1B (+26% y/y) v
Commercial RPO $392B (+51% y/y)
Gross Margin ~$53.6B (~69.0%) vs Street ~67–68%.
Operating Margin ~48.9% vs Street ~46–47%.
P&BP Revenue $33.0B vs Street ~$32.3B.
Intelligent Cloud Revenue $30.9B vs Street ~$30.1B.
More Personal Computing Revenue $13.8B vs Street ~$12.8–12.9B.
Windows OEM & Devices +6% y/y
Xbox Content & Services
+1% y/y
Search & News Ads ex-TAC
+16% y/y
LinkedIn
+10% y/y; Dynamics 365 +18% y/y.
Cash Capex (PP&E additions) $19.4B

“Our planet-scale cloud and AI factory, together with Copilots… is driving broad diffusion and real-world impact.”


GOOGL +5%: looks solid with search/GCP beat and better margins

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