TMTB EOD Wrap: Spotify (SPOT) thoughts, STX NXPI BE BKNG First takes

Good afternoon. QQQs -1% today as semis sold off 3.5% for a 2nd straight red day this week after 18 straight green days for what is still close to the best month since 2000. Nothing goes up in a straight line. The OpenAI WSJ flagging a miss of internal projections was talk of the day today and blamed for the weakness in semis, but Oil was +4% and some less favorable earnings reactions today vs. late last week with AMKR -7%; GLW -9%; RMBS -20% and Advantest -6% didn’t help sentiment. However, let’s not remember we had some massive moves over the last few weeks so all of this doesn’t seem surprising so far. So far tonight things feel more like late last week are looking better earnings-wise in semis with some big moves:

STX +18% after a nice beat and raise guiding revs 9% above street, EPS 25% above street, which is better than the LDD beat buyside was expecting ($5, $20 annualized) and implied GMs ~50%, above the whispers in the high 40s — all these numbers, especially the GMs speaks to the margin expansion bull case. Expecting commentary on the call to go well, talking up LTAs and pricing.

NXPI +10% following the stellar analog printsfrom TXN and STM last week with revs of $3.18B vs street at $3.15B, with all end markets beat slightly with 57.1% GMs vs street at 57%. Guiding revs $3.45B at midpoint (+8% q/q vs street +4%) and guiding GMs to 58% at the midpoint vs street and bogeys in mid to highs 57s. Mgmt highlighting strength in industrial, autos (unexpected), and physical AI and saying positive momentum expected to accelerate through the rest of CY26. This has been a big funding short (and least owned among LOs) given small DC exposure and large auto exposure, so while beat smaller than TXN/STM, it should bode well

From PR, “The momentum we have built is expected to accelerate through the remainder of 2026, with progress increasingly extending across the core of our business. We remain committed to disciplined investment, margin expansion, and portfolio optimization to deliver sustainable, long-term value for our shareholders,” said Rafael Sotomayor, NXP President and Chief Executive Officer.”

BE +15% on a nice beat and raise with Revenue $751M, +130% y/y (last Q +36% y/y) vs Street $533M. Better GMs as well beating by 130bps. FY 2026: Revenue $3.4B vs Street $3.2B. FY 2026: Gross Margin 34.0% vs Street 31.9%. FY 2026: EPS $1.85-$2.25 vs Street $1.40. Call going well so far: