TMTB EOD Wrap; ORCL First Take

Another day of indiscriminate selling as QQQs - 3.8% with SOX -5%, ARKK -9% and BTC -5%. It felt like our “tactical bounce” call was swatted away before we even had a chance to shoot and we were stopped out pretty early (we took our hit and shifted back to “protect pnl” mode) as market fears around growth and Trump/Bessent continue to take center stage — no investor ever likes to hear words like “detox” and “period of disruption”— along with continued fears around HF de-grossing. Here’s what we wrote yesterday in the chat that expresses something similar re: Trump/Bessent:

Add to that indiscriminate de-grossing flows and you can usually throw your r/r’s out the window in the short-term…Here’s some snippets from desks on where we are in terms of HF de-grossing before the day started…

Here’s GS:

Overall book Gross leverage +1.2 pts to 286.5% (5-year high) and Net leverage -1.0 pts to 76.3% (47th percentile 1-year). Overall book L/S ratio -1.0% to 1.726 (1-year low). Fundamental L/S Gross leverage +0.1 pts to 200.1% (93rd percentile 1-year) and Net leverage -1.6 pts to 54.6% (17th percentile 1-year).

Here’s MS: