TMTB EOD Wrap; MU First take

QQQs -34bps after being up 75bps early morning. Treasuries were flat to up with yields flat to down 2bps across the curve. Fed expects now pricing in 69bps worth of cuts vs 60bps before Powell on Wednesday.

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Post-close MU +3% looks solid. Q2 roughly in line but Q3 guide of $8.8B significantly above bogeys of $8-$8.3B as most expected a guide down. That’s up significantly q/q vs Q2 at $8.05B

HVM shipments ahead of plans as they ramp faster - HBM +50% q/q.

HBM shipments were ahead of plans, as they ramp faster (HBM up 50% sequentially). Continue to see HBM and trade % constraining non-HBM supply. Revised up 2025 DRAM demand from “mid teens%” to “mid-to-high teens %.”

(“our HBM shipments were ahead of our plans, demonstrating strong execution of our ongoing ramp…as previously mentioned, Micron is sold out of our HBM output in calendar 2025… we are seeing strong demand for our HBM supply in 2026, and are in discussions with our customers on agreements for their calendar 2026 HBM demand”).

Co said that Q4 Gross margins will be “up somewhat” so getting the commentary we wanted around Q3 being the bottom in GMs.

Overall solid print. As DRAM/NAND pricing continues tick up, we think stock should continue to work well. Cyclical always first and foremost here, but now we got both cyclical +secular working well as we move into Blackwell ramp.

Today saw weakness in some software names following ACN’s booking miss. ACN acknowledged the obvious in Fed procurement pressure amid DOGE but didn’t really give an exact amount. Key quotes below from the call:

Cowen: “In Federal, new procurement actions spurred by DOGE scrutiny have slowed and understandably will impact bookings. But, added uncertainty is factored into its 2H25 guide as its message didn't change at the high & low guide posts."

Also saw a Clev note from yesterday that said 44% of [IT spend] partners seeing impact to sales cycles so far, calling out elongated sales cycles and some cancelations, especially around ERP and IT services (which proved itself after ACN’s results).

Reminder here is a list of names with Federal exposure: