QQQs flat (+1% post-market after beats from MSFT + META) rallying back after being down close to 2% at one point. 2 year yields slid 6 ppts while 10 year ticked down 3bps. Fed expects now pricing in 104bps worth of cuts over the rest of the year. Oil is below 60 again while 10year sits at 4.15% → pretty decent macro set up.
Not only is the index getting bought on dips, but seeing misses also getting bought: CHKP/IBM in sw…BKNG/SPOT in internet…all while the strong get stronger (tariff/China safe havens) and names like NOW SAP following through to the up……usually tea leaves that point to more strength up ahead…(our base case remains chop but upwards trending for now, but we remain on our toes…)
Let’s get to the recap…A short one today as earnings calls happening...
INTERNET
SPOT +6.5% gaining back all its T+1 losses and more. One of cleanest stories in internet and tariff/China safe haven. We wrote up the bull case yesterday:
UBER +2% as investors took the Toyota/Waymo partnership as a positive despite MS calling it out as a risk to UBER/LYFT (their rationale was fewer autonomous players in the market would decrease the ride share network’s leverage). But more cars that partner with Waymo, the bigger their network, and if Waymo partners closely with UBER then it’s a win for them. The POV (personal owned vehicle) angle supports the UBER platform of choice bull case: means Toyota buyers (of which there are many) could eventually “switch on” the Waymo Driver and list their cars on the Uber network during idle hours. We liked the price action here which confirms to us that investor perception has shifted to UBER benefitting from Waymo expansion (whereas before, every Waymo PR was hitting UBER’s stock)
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