We will not have any posts tomorrow. Taking the day off to celebrate an important day with my wife.
QQQs - 34bps. As we suspected this morning, MDB -17% (oof!) and ORCL -7% results took some shine off of sw w IGV underperforming down 1.5% and the “expensive sw” bucket dn close to 3%. In hindsight for me, weaker price action presaged by GTLB’s action on Friday where it sold off on what was a solid print - always a tea leaf out there if you pay attention. Interestingly, NOW +60bps shook off the weakness. Last 2 days have felt like much needed reset on sentiment.
Semis -2.5% continue to act weak - just a brutal stretch for the group since July. Today’s action likely hit by TSM’s weaker Nov monthly data and maybe some fears around what semis look like in a quantum world (although I think that’s a bit far fetched at the moment). NVDA head and shoulders being passed around on social media:
These H&S charts for a quality stock in an uptrend are usually signs we are near a bottom - we’ll see if that’s the case this time. It’s been a while, but I think we are getting close to the point where we can start talking about an NVDA trade on r/r. We like this post on X from techfundies laying out the math and bull/bear arguments: downside would be CY26 EPS dn 20% and stock gets trough 25x multiple = 20% dnside to stock. Upside is 35x CY26 of $6 = 50%+ upside. Next catalyst would be Jensen at CES in early Jan. Not a stock pitch, just laying out how I’m thinking about it…
Internet
GOOGL +5.5% on Quantum announcement. Although mixed takes about what exactly it means and how good a breakthrough it was (we liked this balance take), the move could point to a larger change in sentiment on GOOGL’s stock. Could this be the start things like Waymo ad GCP being given better multiples for GOOG? At 15x FCF, not really baking in much of it. Yip data showing search tracking slightly better now so that fear is off the table. Piper also had a positive note calling out positivity from ad buyers around GOOGL’s AI tools. Let’s see…
NFLX flat after co-CEO ted Sarandos spoke at UBS TMT conf. I thought presentation was extremely bullish, highlighting that 2025 is the best slate for original programming they’ve ever had: Finale of Squid Games, Ginny and Georgia, Emily in Paris, Night Agent, Knives Out: Wake Up Dead Man, Frankenstein, Wednesday, Finale of Stranger things. Said 180M diff people tuned in at one point to Paul v Tyson fight. In addition WWE live launches every Monday beginning in early Jan. and its relatively unknown internationally. About 70M (25%) of users on ad tier now. Have plenty of room to grow members around the world…and plenty of room to grow engagement base to capture monetization on that engagement. Overall, full transcript worth a read
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