QQQs -1.8% after another crazy intraday range of 7%+, from 4.5% early morning to down 3%+ near the close. Not the best look:
2 yr yields fell but long end of the curve rose again with 10 year yields +8bps and 30 year yields +11bps. The 10 year is now back to 4.3%. The move in yields is fueling more concern around potential for reduced trade deficits to curb demand for U.S. financial assets and also the left tail risk of countries holding back buying treasuries.
BTC -3%; Crude under $60. CNY has also begun to weaken:
There were hopes this morning that the Trump team would shift towards negotiations given some positive news flow with a call with South Korea, but as has happened often, hopes were dashed. This time by US trade Rep Greer, who during Senate testimony made clear the WH is deadly serious about pursuing its trade agenda. White House also said 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon eastern time because China has not removed its retaliation and will start collecting tomorrow.
We were hoping today’s EOD wrap would be a day we could get back to calling out fundamental news as reasons for moves, but as we usually note, on a risk-off day like day, flows usually dominate the price action so not a lot of idio reasons for moves,. However, the one thing we continue to see is outperformance/underperformance from companies less/more exposed to Tariffs/China. Always some sort of alpha to be made! In internet, names like NFLX, SPOT etc continue to outperform while a name like AAPL - the large-cap poster child for a ton of tariff/China exposure - continues to underperform. In semis, China exposed names like AMD/INTC have underperformed the last two days. While nothing is static and names exposed to tariffs will likely outperform on days deals are made, if negotiation of deals is a process that will take weeks/months, etc. instead of days we wouldn’t be surprised for this trend to continue and more bifurcation to continue to take place.
Here’s how companies in different sectors have performed since “Liberation Day” through EOD today (red and “ice” blue have replaced green and red)
Onto the recap…
Internet
Companies with little exposure to China and/or tariffs continue to outperform: NFLX +30bps (MS was positive this morning as well); SPOT -12bps; DASH -30bps; MELI +1.8%; CART -80bps
CVNA +5% as Yipit out saying units accelerated in the most recent week.
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